000 AXNT20 KNHC 061813 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 213 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dorian is centered near 36.2N 73.7W at 06/1800 UTC or 125 nm NE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NE at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center and scattered moderate convection is elsewhere in feeder bands from 34N-41N between 70W-75W. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (34 km/h) and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move away from the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more details. Post Tropical Gabrielle regenerates into a Tropical Storm 06/1500 UTC is centered near 27.3N 38.7W or 1005 nm SW of the Azores moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is well north of the center from 27N-30N between 35W-40W. A turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed are expected over the next couple of days. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north are forecast to occur by Sunday morning. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands extends its axis along 24W S of 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1011 mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 15N26W. Scattered showers are noted from 05-17N between 21W-28W. Little if any development of this disturbance is expected for the next couple of days, but environmental conditions are expected to become favorable for a tropical depression to form early next week while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Enhanced rainfall is possible across the Cabo Verde Islands through today as the low moves away from the area. An Atlantic tropical wave that was once associated with Gabrielle is now along 43W S of 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 07N-12N between 40W-46W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 62W S of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 125 nm of the axis. Development, if any, of this system will be slow to occur while it moves slowly NW. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 73W S of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 16N16W to a low pressure near 15N26W to 07N38W. The ITCZ is from 09N46W to 11N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the coast of Mauritania and Guinea-Bissau and from 04N-11N between 29W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is building across the NW Gulf with a 1018 mb high centered over east Texas near 30N96W. A cold front in the eastern Gulf is pushing southward across the NE Gulf coast. The front extends from 29N83W to 29N89W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the W Gulf from 18N-24N between 94W-97W. Most of the remainder of the Gulf is under fair weather as ridge builds bringing in drier air into the NE Gulf limiting convection north of 24N. ASCAT data indicate light winds across the basin. A cold front over the northeast Gulf will shift southward and dissipate through early Sat. Weak high pressure will persist across the northwest Gulf through early next week, with gentle to moderate winds expected. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the Yucatan Channel and southwest Caribbean Sea drom 09N-13N between79W-83W and from 16N-20N between 81W-87W. Scattered showers and tstorms are also noted across Puerto Rico the Mona Passage and eastern Dominican Republic. ASCAT data indicate light easterly trades E of 69W and across the western Caribbean and moderate conditions across the Central Caribbean Sea. Weak ridging will prevail north of the area through early next week. Fresh trade winds will pulse in the S central Caribbean tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle and two tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front enters the forecast area in the western Atlantic near the FL coast from 31N78W to 30N80W. No significant convection is noted along the boundary. A surface trough extends south from a low from 30N58W to 26N63W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough north of 30N-33N between 57W-59W. A weak 1017 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 26N66W. To the south near the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough extends from 19N51W to 15N57W with a surface 1012 mb low noted near over 16N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 17N-21N between 49W-54W. Hurricane Dorian will accelerate northward away from the region today. Large northerly swell from Dorian will dominate the waters mainly north of 28N into Sun. A return to tranquil marine conditions is expected next week. $$ MMTorres