000 AXNT20 KNHC 061204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dorian is centered near 35.2N 75.7W at 06/1200 UTC or 10 nm WSW of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere in feeder bands from 31N-40N between 71W-81W. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia. A few tornadoes are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is centered near 25.5N 37.6W at 06/0900 UTC or 950 nm NW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Gabrielle has 30 kt of southerly wind shear over the system. Scattered moderate convection is well north of the center from 26N-31N between 35W- 39W. Gabrielle is expected to further weaken into a post-tropical remnant low by tonight. Thereafter, slow strengthening is expected to occur over the weekend, and the remnants of Gabrielle is forecast to regenerate into a tropical cyclone at that time. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands extends its axis along 24W S of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 14N24W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-17N between 24W-26W. Little if any development of this disturbance is expected for the next couple of days, but environmental conditions are expected to become favorable for tropical depression formation early next week while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. An Atlantic tropical wave that was once associated with Gabrielle is now along 42W S of 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-14N between 43W-47W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 62W S of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the axis. Development, if any, of this system will be slow to occur while it moves slowly northwestward. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 72W S of 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over N Colombia from 07N-12N between 71W-77W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 14N24W to 07N27W to 10N40W. The ITCZ is from 10N44W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-11N between 27W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1018 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N93W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the W Gulf from 22N-24N between 94W-97W. Most of the remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. Strong subsidence is over most of the Gulf. Weak high pressure will extend across the basin through the weekend, with gentle to moderate winds expected. Moderate easterly flow will prevail across the Gulf next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Channel. Isolated moderate convection is over the remainder of the NW Caribbean. Further S, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean, E Nicaragua, and Panama. Weak ridging will prevail north of the area through early next week. Fresh trade winds will pulse in the S central Caribbean today and tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle and two tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 30N78W to S Florida near 24N82W. A weak 1018 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 28N67W. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N60W to 26N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-33N between 57W-60W. In the tropics, a 1012 mb low is E of the Leeward Islands near 17N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 16N-21N between 50W-58W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N45W producing wind shear over Gabrielle. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 25N-31N between 42W-48W. Hurricane Dorian will accelerate northward away from the region today. Large northerly swell from Dorian will dominate the SW N Atlc through the weekend, including offshore of Florida. A return to tranquil marine conditions is expected next week. $$ Formosa