000 AXNT20 KNHC 042350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 750 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dorian is centered near 30.6N 79.8W at 04/2100 UTC or 130 nm S of Charleston South Carolina, moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 28N-35N between 77W-83W. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will approach the coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Thursday, and move near or over the coast of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. The URL for more information is: hurricanes.gov. Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 21.0N 34.0W at 04/2100 UTC or 640 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-26N between 30W-36W. Gabrielle's motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with an increase in forward speed expected late in the week. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. The URL for more information is: hurricanes.gov. Tropical Depression Fernand is centered near 24.4N 98.3W at 04/2100 UTC or 40 nm NW of La Pesca Mexico, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the far northwest Gulf waters and northeast Mexico area mainly north of 25N and west of 94W. A steady decrease in winds is anticipated and Fernand will likely dissipate tonight or by early Thursday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. The URL for more information is: hurricanes.gov. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 34N63W, just to the NE of Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection is 28N-35N between 57W-65W. This system has become a little better defined today, but the thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Further development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves northeastward away from Bermuda. By Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. The chance of a tropical cyclone developing during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 51W, from 21N southward, moving W 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 14N to 21N between 47W and 52W. A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 64W and south of 13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers cover Venezuela and adjacent waters mainly south of 11N. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 83W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 13N southward affecting Central America and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 16N22W, then resumes near 15N37W to 13N43W. The ITCZ is from 13N43W to 13N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough mainly east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... T.D. Fernand is over northeast Mexico. Refer to the section above for details. Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the middle Texas coast toward the Straits of Florida. Fair weather prevails across the the basin. Fernand will move to 25.0N 100.0W Thu morning, and dissipate by Thu afternoon. Weak high pressure will then prevail across the basin over the weekend to produce gentle to moderate winds, strengthening some early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 74W in Colombia to beyond 86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection are noted south of 12N between 77W-82W. A tropical wave along 83W will shift W of the basin by Fri. Another tropical in the SE Caribbean will shift W into the central portion by the end of the week, then the western portion this weekend. Fresh to strong tradewinds will pulse each night in the S central Caribbean through early Fri. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details Dorian, Gabrielle, Special Feature low, and the tropical wave moving across the basin. Aside from the features described above, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Dorian will move N of the area to 31.4N 79.8W early Thu morning, 32.7N 79.0W Thu afternoon, 34.0N 77.3W early Fri morning, 35.9N 74.4W Fri afternoon, and 42.1N 65.6W Sat afternoon. Large northerly swell from Dorian will dominate the west Atlantic through Sat. Much more tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ ERA