000 AXNT20 KNHC 041759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 04/1800 UTC, is near 30.2N 79.8W. This position is about 100 nm/185 km to the ENE of Jacksonville in Florida, and about 155 nm/290 km to the S of Charleston in South Carolina. Dorian is moving NNW, or 340 degrees, 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are wrapped around the eye, 1.5 times. Everything is about 90 nm from the center. Other scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 270 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 180 nm of the center in the S semicircle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. The URL for more information is: hurricanes.gov. The center of Tropical Storm Fernand, at 04/1800 UTC, is near 24.3N 97.9W. This position is about 30 nm/55 km to the N of La Pesca in Mexico. Fernand is moving WNW, or 290 degrees, 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are inland, in Mexico, within 240 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere, in Mexico and in Texas, from 22N to 29N between the coasts of Texas and Mexico and 103W inland. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico, from 22N northward from 90W westward. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for FERNAND are available via the WMO header WTNT32 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for FERNAND are available via the WMO header WTNT22 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. The center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, at 04/1500 UTC, is near 20.5N 33.8W. Gabrielle is moving NW, or 320 degrees, 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 240 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for GABRIELLE are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for GABRIELLE are available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 33N63W, just to the NE of Bermuda. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 28N to 35N between 56W and 64W. Some development of this feature is possible. It is possible that a tropical depression may form during the next couple of days, as the low pressure center moves northeastward, away from Bermuda. Upper level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation, later. The chance of a tropical cyclone developing during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 21N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 14N to 21N between 47W and 52W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 13N southward, moving W 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the land areas and the waters from 08N to 12N between 59W and 64W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Monsoon trough-related rainshowers are from 13N southward, from 13N in Nicaragua southward, between 76W in the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia and 86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N19W and 07N26W. The monsoon trough is broken up at this point. Another part of the monsoon trough is along 13N/14N between 35W and 45W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in Africa and the coastal waters from 11N to 16N between 13W and 18W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 10N between 18W and 27W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 06N to 14N between 32W and 59W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Fernand is in the western Gulf of Mexico. Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A NW-to-SE oriented ridge extends from the middle Texas coast toward the Straits of Florida. Tropical Storm Fernand near 24.2N 97.3W, 1002 mb at 1500 UTC, moving WNW 7 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. The highest wind speeds and the majority of significant weather will remain W and SW of the center. Fernand will continue westward, and move inland, near 24.7N 98.9W by this evening, as it weakens to a tropical depression, and gradually dissipates inland in Mexico, by Thursday evening. Weak high pressure then will prevail across the basin during the weekend, in order to produce light to moderate winds and mild seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea, from 700 mb to 250 mb, from 70W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea between 67W and 74W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 13N northward, elsewhere from 74W westward. The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 74W in Colombia, beyond 86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to the south of Panama from 82W eastward. Numerous strong rainshowers are in SE Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea from 12N southward from 76W westward. Hurricane Dorian, off the NE Florida coast, will continue to disrupt the tradewind flow across the NW Caribbean Sea, through early Friday. A tropical wave, that is near 81W, will continue through the western Caribbean Sea, exiting the basin into Central America on Friday. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse to strong each night in the S central Caribbean Sea through early Friday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Early morning altimeter data indicated that NW swell from DORIAN, that is propagating southward, between Florida and the Bahamas, was hitting the Gulf Stream, and amplifying waves to 10 to 20 feet. Hurricane Dorian is moving northward, away from the coastal waters of NE Florida. Tropical Storm Gabrielle and its accompanying precipitation are from 600 nm to 800 nm to the NW of the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1015 mb low pressure center is just to the NE of Bermuda, with nearby precipitation. Hurricane Dorian near 29.8N 79.7W 964 mb, at 1500 UTC, moving NNW 8 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 kt with gusts 110 knots. Dorian will continue northward, toward the South Carolina coast through early Thursday morning. Dorian will reach 30.8N 80.0W this evening; then veer NE and along or just offshore of the Carolina coasts from Thursday through Friday. Large northerly swell from Dorian will dominate the SW North Atlantic Ocean through Saturday. $$ MT