000 AXNT20 KNHC 040512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 112 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dorian is centered near 28.4N 79.0W at 04/0300 UTC or 80 nm E of Cape Canaveral Florida moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 25N-32N between 75W-81W. Dorian has become a larger hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through Wednesday night. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or at hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near 23.2N 96.4W at 04/0300 UTC or 90 nm ESE of La Pesca Mexico moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 22N-27N between 96W-100W. A track toward the west-northwest is anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico on Wednesday night. Data from the reconnaissance plane indicate that the tropical storm force winds are already near the coast of Mexico. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or the website www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 19.1N 32.8W at 04/0300 UTC or 530 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 19N-24N between 29W-34W. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. A trough of low pressure, located just west of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves northeast, away from Bermuda. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and areas of heavy rainfall are likely. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 49W from 04N-22W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-20N between 45W-51W. This tropical wave is well depicted by TPW imagery and model diagnostics. A east Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 62W from 03N- 15N, moving W at at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is inland over Venezuela from 04N-08N between 61W-64W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the remainder of the wave axis. A west Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W from 08N- 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Guinea near 10N14W to 06N20W to 07N26W. There is a break in the monsoon trough at this point, and resumes from 14N36W to 14N43W. Aside from the convection mentioned in sections above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 05N-12N between 14W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Fernand in the western Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of the basin, with strong winds near Tropical Storm Fernand. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida from 23N-25N, east of 84W. Strong subsidence prevails elsewhere in the Gulf. Tropical Storm Fernand will move to 23.5N 97.5W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 24.0N 98.5W Wed evening, to 24.5N 100.0W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening. Weak high pres will then prevail across the basin over the weekend to produce light to moderate winds and mild seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves currently over the Caribbean. An inverted upper-level trough is over the central Caribbean near 75W. Scattered moderate convection is over Haiti from 18N-20N between 73W-75W. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing isolated moderate convection south of 10N between 77W-83W, including portions of Panama. The tropical wave near 80W will continue through the western Caribbean, exiting the basin over Central America by the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the S central Caribbean through Thu night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian, Tropical Depression Eight, a surface trough, and a tropical wave. A surface trough extends across the central Atlantic from 32N38W to 28N45W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. $$ Formosa