000 AXNT20 KNHC 032348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 748 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dorian centered near 27.7N 78.7W at 03/2100 UTC or 90 nm E of Vero Beach Florida moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails from 25N-31N between 75W-81W. Dorian has become a larger hurricane. Hurricane- force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical- storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast tonight through Wednesday night. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or at hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Fernand centered near 23.4N 95.9W at 03/2100 UTC or 110 nm ESE of La Pesca Mexico moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is currently extending from 22N-28N and west of 93W. A motion toward the west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a motion toward the northwest on Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or the website www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A 1006 mb low is centered along a tropical wave near 16N29W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N-23N between 29W-32W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 330 nm NE quad, 390 nm southern semicircle and 210 nm NW quad. A tropical depression is expected to form later today while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is high. A surface trough is located several hundred nm south of Bermuda from 30N63W to 26N67W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted north of 27N between 60W-66W. Some development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it moves northward, and a tropical depression could form by Thursday. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. Areas of heavy rainfall are likely in Bermuda, regardless of development. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 08N-21N, moving W at 10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. A tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 04N-22W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 14N-16N between 45W-50W. This tropical wave is well depicted by TPW imagery and model diagnostics. An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W from 03N-14N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the part of the wave that remains inland over South America. A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 78W from 08N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of the wave, affecting eastern Cuba and adjacent waters at this time. An upper-level trough over the Caribbean is enhancing the convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Guinea near 09N13W to 08N20W. There is a break in the monsoon trough at this point, and resumes from 17N22W to 18N33W to 10N50W. The ITCZ extends from 10N50W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned in sections above, scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa and offshore from 05N-10N and east of 21W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Fernand in the western Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of the basin, with strong winds near Tropical Storm Fernand. Elsewhere, a feeder band from Hurricane Dorian continues to enhance scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida from 23N-25N, east of 88W. Strong subsidence prevails elsewhere in the Gulf. Fernand will move to 23.4N 96.5W Wed morning, 23.7N 97.5W Wed afternoon, inland to 24.2N 98.4W Thu morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 25.0N 99.4W Thu afternoon. Fernand will dissipate Fri afternoon. Weak high pres will then prevail across the basin over the weekend to produce light to moderate winds and mild seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently across the central Caribbean. An inverted upper-level trough is over the central Caribbean near 70W. Moisture on the east side of the upper-trough axis is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 09N-14N, east of 65W, including the Windward Islands, NE Venezuela and Trinidad. This convection is also being enhanced by the tropical wave along 60W. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection south of 10N between 77W-83W, including portions of Panama. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades in the central Caribbean to the east of the wave along 78W. The tropical wave from eastern Cuba to Jamaica to near the Panama/Colombia border will continue through the western Caribbean, exiting the basin over Central America by the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the S central Caribbean through Thu night. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian, two disturbances, and three tropical waves. A surface trough extends across the central Atlantic from 32N38W to 27N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. $$ ERA