000 AXNT20 KNHC 031100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 03/0900 UTC, is located near 26.9N 78.4W about 30 nm NE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island. Dorian has an estimated central pressure of 950 mb and is currently stationary. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Dorian is a Category 3 hurricane. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 23N-30N between 75W-80W. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected to begin this morning. A turn to the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. Also, use the URL www.hurricanes.gov. The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, at 03/0900 UTC, is located near 23.5N 94.3W or about 212 nm ENE of Tampico Mexico, moving W at 6 kt. The estimated central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 19N-28N between 90W-99W. The system is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or tonight. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. A 1007 mb low is embedded on a tropical wave near 17N31W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 12N-19N between 27W-33W. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical is along 31W from 08N-21N, moving W at 10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W from 04N-14N, moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 46W-53W. A central Caribbean wave is along 74W from 08N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Haiti, NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 17N31W to 08N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N53W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 14N-17N between 20W-22W. Widely scattered moderate convection is also over the Atlantic from 08N-12N between 58W-61W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven centered over the western Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of the basin, with locally fresh winds near Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven. The system will move to 23.4N 95.2W this afternoon, and is expected strengthen to a tropical storm near 23.4N 96.3W Wed morning, 23.7N 97.1W Wed afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 24.3N 98.2W Thu morning, and dissipate Fri morning. Elsewhere, a feeder band from Hurricane Dorian has scattered moderate convection over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida from 23N- 25N between 80W- 83W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Georgia and the Carolinas influencing the track of Hurricane Dorian. Strong subsidence is also over the NE Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently across the central Caribbean. Isolated moderate convection is over the Windward Islands from 10N-15N between 60W-64W. Similar convection is along the coast of E Cuba from 19N-22N between 74W-76W. Scattered moderate convection is inland over Belize. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades across the rest of the basin. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over W Honduras near 15N86W enhancing convection. The tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the western Caribbean Wed and exit west of the Caribbean Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian, Special Features, and tropical waves. A surface trough is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda from 30N63W to 25N68W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-30N between 60W-67W. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is low. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 28N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin. Hurricane Dorian is located near 26.9N 78.4W 950 mb at 5 AM EDT and is nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt gusts 130 kt. Dorian will move to 27.5N 78.8W this afternoon, 28.5N 79.3W Wed morning, 29.9N 79.7W Wed afternoon, 31.4N 79.4W Thu morning, and 34.3N 76.6W Fri morning. Dorian will slowly weaken as it moves parallel and well offshore the eastern United States coast Sat, and become extratropical as it moves east of Canada Sun. $$ Formosa