000 AXNT20 KNHC 030556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 03/0300 UTC, is located near 26.9N 78.5W about 30 nm NNE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island. Dorian has an estimated central pressure of 946 mb and is currently stationary. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Dorian is a Category 4 hurricane. The eye of Dorian is still well-defined in satellite imagery. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 22N-30N between 74W-80W. A slow northwestward motion is expected to occur early Tuesday. A turn toward the north is forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island into Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. Also, use the URL www.hurricanes.gov. A 1007 mb low is embedded on a tropical wave near 16N31W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 12N-19N between 27W-33W. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is high. A 1008 mb low is centered over the western Gulf of Mexico near 24N94W, with a surface trough extending from 26N93W to the low to 21N94W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 21N-27N between 91W-98W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical is along 31W from 08N-21N, moving W at 10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W from 04N-14N, moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 46W-53W. A central Caribbean wave is along 73W from 08N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Haiti, NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W passes to 16N30W to 09N47W. The ITCZ extends from 08N52W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Aside from the convection related to the low/tropical wave along 31W and the other wave along 50W, scattered moderate convection is alongthe coast of W Africa from 14N-20N between 15W-20W. Widely scattered moderate convection is also over the Atlantic from 10N-16N between 36W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the low centered over the western Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of the basin, with locally fresh winds near the low described above. The broad low pressure will move slowly westward towards the coast of NE Mexico through mid week. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, a feeder band from Hurricane Dorian has scattered moderate convection over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida from 24N- 25N between 80W- 83W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Georgia and the Carolinas influencing the track of Hurricane Dorian. Strong subsidence is also over the NE Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently across the central Caribbean. Isolated moderate convection is over the Windward Islands from 10N-15N between 60W-64W. Similar convection is along the coast of W Cuba from 21N-23N between 81W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is inland over W Honduras and Guatemala. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades across the rest of the basin. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over W Honduras near 15N86W enhancing convection. The tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the western Caribbean Wed and exit west of the Caribbean Sat. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian, Special Features, and tropical waves. A surface trough is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda from 30N63W to 25N68W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-30N between 60W-67W. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is low. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 28N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin. Hurricane Dorian is stationary near 26.9N 78.5W 946 mb at 11 PM EDT. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts 140 kt. Dorian will move to 27.1N 78.7W Tue morning, 27.9N 79.1W Tue evening, 29.2N 79.7W Wed morning, 30.6N 79.7W Wed evening, and off the South Carolina coast near 33.7N 77.3W by Thu evening. Dorian will slowly weaken as it continues paralleling the coast offshore the Carolinas through Saturday. $$ Formosa