000 AXNT20 KNHC 022332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 732 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 02/2100 UTC, is located near 26.8N 78.4W which is about 20 nm NE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island and about 90 miles E of West Palm Beach, Florida. Dorian has an estimated central pressure of 940 mb and is currently stationary. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Dorian is a Category 4 hurricane. The eye of Dorian is still well- defined in satellite imagery. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 24N-29N between 75W-80W. A slow westward to west- northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue into early Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island into Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. Also, use the URL www.hurricanes.gov. A 1006 mb low pressure center has developed along a tropical wave near 16N30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N-21N between 27W-32W. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the elongated area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, has become better defined since yesterday. Although this system is currently producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is high. A 1009 mb low pressure centered NNW of the Yucatan Peninsula, centered near 24N92W, with a surface trough extending from 27N91W to the low to 18N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen mostly to the west of the low pressure center, from 21N-29N between 92W-97W. This convective activity has become more concentrated since last night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next two or three days while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 30W. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 50W S of 12N, moving W 15 knots. The convection occurring near this tropical wave is related to monsoon trough from 08N-12N. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 71W S of 21N, moving W around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted across Hispaniola from 18N-20N between 71W-73W in addition to NW Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Mauritania near 17N16W to 16N30W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the convection related to the low/tropical wave along 28W and the other wave along 48W, scattered moderate convection is noted along the boundaries from 07N-16N between 32W- 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the low pressure centered NNW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across most of the basin, with locally fresh winds near the low described above. The broad low pressure will move slowly W over the SW Gulf through mid week. This system could strengthen and has a medium potential of becoming a tropical cyclone this week. In the Atlantic, extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will begin to move slowly NW away from the northern Bahamas tonight before turning NNW to parallel the east coasts of Florida and Georgia through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently across the central Caribbean. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the NW Caribbean from 18N-22N between 83W-88W. Convection occurring over Cuba and Jamaica are moving into adjacent waters mostly in the Windward Passage. The east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing convection. Numerous strong convection is moving off the coast of Colombia, S of 12N between 75W-76W. Scattered thunderstorms are also moving along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades across the rest of the basin. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean near 71W will reach the western Caribbean Wednesday and exit W of the Caribbean by Saturday. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades prevailing over the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian, Special Features, and tropical waves. A surface trough is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda from 26N67W to 30N63W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N- 30N between 58W-66W. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is low. Over the central Atlantic, a dying cold front enters the waters near 31N40W and extends to 28N49W. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin. Hurricane Dorian will move to 27.0N 78.7W tonight, 27.6N 79.1W Tuesday afternoon, 28.7N 79.7W Tuesday night, 30.0N 80.1W Wednesday afternoon, and off the South Carolina coast near 32.8N 78.6W Thursday afternoon. Dorian will slowly weaken as it continues paralleling the coast offshore the Carolinas through Saturday. $$ AKR