000 AXNT20 KNHC 021733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 133 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian is located at 26.8N 78.3W at 02/1500 UTC, or 30 nm NE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island, moving W at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Dorian is a Category 4 hurricane. The eye of Dorian is still well-defined in satellite imagery. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 24N-29N between 75W-80W. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. Also, use the URL www.hurricanes.gov. A 1010 mb low pressure center has developed along a tropical wave near 15N28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-19N between 27W-32W. The precipitation pattern continues to show signs of organization. With this, a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is high. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system does not have a well-defined surface center. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Scattered moderate convection is from 24N-30N between 58W-65W. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is medium. Broad low pressure centered just NNW of the Yucatan Peninsula, centered near 24N92W, with a surface trough extending from 27N91W to the low to 19N93W. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward across the south- central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico. At this time, scattered moderate convection is from 21N- 28N between 90W- 97W. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 28W. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 48W from 16N southward, is moving W 15-20 knots. Monsoon trough related showers prevail along the wave's axis from 07N-12N. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean, with axis extending from 22N67W to 06N73W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the southern portion of the wave affecting Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 18N16W to 15N28W to 10N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection related to the low/tropical wave along 28W and the other wave along 48W, scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 m of either side of the boundaries between 20W-57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the low pressure centered NNW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across most of the basin, with locally fresh winds near the low described above. The low pressure will move slowly W over the SW Gulf through mid week. In the Atlantic, extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian is over Grand Bahama Island in the northern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of of 135 kt and gusts to 165 kt. Dorian will move slowly W through the northern Bahamas today before turning NW then NNW to parallel the east coasts of Florida and Georgia through mid week. Tropical storm force winds may affect the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico, including the Florida Big Bend area, tonight through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently across the central Caribbean. The monsoon trough extends along 10N enhancing convection across Central America and adjacent Caribbean waters between 77W-82W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. The tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the western Caribbean Wed into Thu and west of the area Fri into Sat. Moderate to fresh winds are expected to pulse across the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, with gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian, Special Features, and tropical waves. Over the central Atlantic, a cold front passes through 31N39W to 27N48W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Dorian will move to 26.9N 78.7W this evening, 27.2N 79.1W Tue morning, 28.1N 79.6W Tue evening, 29.3N 80.2W Wed morning, and off the Georgia coast near 32N 79.4W Thu morning. Dorian will slowly weaken as it continues to move to the north of the area early Fri, and continue paralleling the coast offshore the Carolinas into Saturday. $$ ERA