000 AXNT20 KNHC 020605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 02/0600 UTC, is near 26.6N 78.1W. This position is about 35 nm/65 km to the east of Freeport in Grand Bahama Island, and about 110 nm/200 km to the east of West Palm Beach in Florida. Dorian is moving W, or 270 degrees, 4 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 155 knots with gusts to 190 knots. Dorian is a Category 5 hurricane. The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb. The eye of Dorian is impressive and well-defined in satellite imagery. Numerous strong rainshowers are are within 60 nm to 90 nm of the center, and within 180 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere the Atlantic Ocean side of Cuba to 30N from 70W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are from 30N northward from 70W westward. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. The URL for more information is www.hurricanes.gov. A 1006 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near 14N26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in clusters, are within 60 nm on either side of the line from 13N31W to 18N26W. This system is becoming better organized, gradually. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for additional development during the next several days. It is likely that a tropical depression may form by the middle of the week, while the system is moving generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next day or two. Interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this system. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 16N southward, moving W 20 knots. Monsoon trough related rainshowers are from 06N to 13N between 40W and 50W. A tropical wave is along 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Puerto Rico, to 16N67W in the Caribbean Sea, to 09N68W in Venezuela. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 16N northward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of Mauritania and Senegal, to the 14N26W 1006 mb low pressure center, to 11N37W, to 09N48W. The ITCZ continues from 09N48W to 09N51W and 09N61W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 240 nm to 360 nm on either side of the line that runs from 10N between 14W and 50W. A surface trough is along 11N52W 13N55W 16N57W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from 10N50W 12N54W 16N57W 19N57W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 28N90, to a 1008 mb low pressure center that is just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N89W, southeastward into the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 21N northward, and in Central America from El Salvador to western Honduras to Guatemala. Low pressure, just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, will move slowly W across the western Gulf of Mexico through mid week. Category 4 Hurricane Dorian is in the Atlantic Ocean, near 26.4N 76.0W, moving W 7 knots, and maximum sustained winds 130 knots with gusts to 160 knots. Dorian will move through the northern Bahamas through early Monday. Dorian will turn NW, then NNW, in order to parallel the east coasts of Florida and Georgia through mid week. Tropical storm force winds will stay mainly to the east of the far eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, including the Florida Big Bend area, from Monday night through Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea and Central America near Nicaragua and Honduras, from 20N southward from 76W westward. No significant deep convective precipitation is in the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough passes through 11N75W in Colombia, through the border area of Colombia and eastern Panama, beyond southern Panama and the border of Panama and Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating but lingering rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W westward, including inland areas from Colombia to Costa Rica. Category 4 Hurricane Dorian is moving slowly W across the Atlantic Ocean, in the open waters that are just E of the northern Bahamas. A tropical wave, in the far eastern Caribbean Sea, will reach the central Caribbean Sea by Monday night, and the western Caribbean Sea by Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing in the NW Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle level cyclonic wind flow , related to an inverted trough, covers the area that is from 20N northward between 50W and 60W. A surface trough is along Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 21N to 28N between 57W and 63W. A cold front passes through 32N40W to 29N44W to 29N50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 28N northward between 40W and 50W. An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center that is along the northern coast of Morocco, to 30N20W, to 28N32W, to a second cyclonic center that is near 25N38W, to 20N43W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence surrounds the trough. Category 4 Hurricane Dorian near 26.4N 76.0W 934 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt. Dorian will move to 26.6N 77.1W this afternoon, 26.7N 78.1W Mon morning, 26.9N 78.7W Mon afternoon, 27.0N 79.0W Tue morning, and 27.6N 79.4W Wed morning. Dorian will weaken slightly in intensity as it moves to the 28.9N 79.8W early Thu, and continue to near 31.8N 79.6W early Fri. $$ MT