000 AXNT20 KNHC 012327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 727 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 01/2100 UTC, is near 26.6N 77.3W. This position is about 80 nm east of Freeport Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas and about 150 nm east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Dorian is moving W at 5 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 160 knots with gusts to 195 knots, making Dorian a Category 5 hurricane. The estimated minimum central pressure is 910 mb. Numerous strong convection are within 50 to 90 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 90 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted elsewhere from 23N-29N between 74W-79W. Dorian should continue to slowly move westward to west- northwestward for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great Abaco this evening and move near or over Grand Bahama Island tonight and Monday. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic hurricane during the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A broad area of low pressure centered near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of becoming better organized and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next day or so, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this system. This area of low pressure has a medium chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a high chance in the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W S of 16N, moving W 15-20 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the wave. A tropical wave is along 65W S of 22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection associated with this tropical wave is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to 12N34W to 10N47W. The ITCZ begins near 10N47W and continues to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-13N between 17W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... An area of low pressure continues to drift westward across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. A 1010 mb low is analyzed near 23N90W with a trough extending along the low from 21N89W to 27N94W. This low pressure system is igniting scattered moderate convection across the central and western Gulf from 21N-29N between 86W-96W. A line of thunderstorms is moving off the coast of Florida into the eastern Gulf from 25N-30N and E of 84W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate cyclonic winds near the low pressure with light to gentle winds across the rest of the basin. The broad low pressure N of the Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly W over the SW Gulf through mid week. In the Atlantic, extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian is over Abaco Island and will move through the northern Bahamas through early Monday before turning NW then NNW to parallel the east coasts of Florida and Georgia through mid week. Tropical storm force winds may affect the far eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, including the Florida Big Bend area, Tuesday through Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Ongoing convection across the Yucatan Passage is moving into the NW Caribbean from 19N-22N between 81W-86W. Some convection from the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is moving into the SW Caribbean, S of 10N between 75W-80W. Otherwise, other areas of significant convection are occurring over Cuba and Hispaniola but not reaching adjacent waters. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades north of Venezuela and Colombia, with light to gentle trades across the rest of the Caribbean. Hurricane Dorian is moving slowly W over Abaco Island in the northern Bahamas. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean near 65W will reach the central Caribbean Monday night and western Caribbean by Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Mid-level low pressure north of the Greater Antilles is giving way to scattered moderate convection from 23N-30N between 55W-66W. A surface trough is noted in from 12N50W to 16N55W, just to the east of the Lesser Antilles, and is acting as an anchor for scattered moderate convection from 11N-18N between 48W-56W. A cold front is moving into the central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N42W to 29N50W. Showers are seen within 50 nm of the boundary. Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Dorian will move to 26.7N 78.1W tonight, 26.8N 78.7W Monday afternoon, lie just NW of Grand Bahama Island near 27.0N 79.0W by Monday night. Dorian will head NNW, paralleling the east coast of Florida to reach 27.7N 79.5W Tuesday afternoon, and 30.0N 80.3W Wednesday afternoon. Dorian will weaken slightly in intensity as it passes just E of the South Carolina coast early Thursday, and just E of the North Carolina coast Friday. $$ AKR