000 AXNT20 KNHC 011204 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 01/1200 UTC, is near 26.5N 76.5W. This position is about 35 nm/ to the east of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas, and about 225 nm to the east of West Palm Beach in Florida. Dorian is moving W, or 275 degrees, 8 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 160 knots with gusts to 170 knots. Dorian is a Category 5 hurricane. The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb. Numerous strong convection are within 90 nm of the center in the E semicircle, and within 60 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 21N to 30N between 70W and 78W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. The URL for more information is www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is moving through the Cabo Verde Islands, along 25W, from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in clusters, are from 10N to 16N between 23W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 16N southward, moving W 20 knots. Monsoon trough related rainshowers are from 10N to 14N between 40W and 44W. A tropical wave is along 21N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 15N63W in the Caribbean Sea, to NE Venezuela near 10N64W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 57W and 65W. A tropical wave is along 85W, from 15N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W, to 12N30W and to 10N48W. The ITCZ is along 10N48W 10N54W 12N58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the coastal plains of Africa from 04N to 20N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from 08N28W to 10N34W 12N42W 13N47W 17N54W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 27N88W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near 23N87W, southeastward into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, near 19N85W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 94W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are along the Mexico coast, from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico toward the Deep South of Texas. Low pressure, just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, will move slowly W across the western Gulf of Mexico through mid week. Category 4 Hurricane Dorian is in the Atlantic Ocean, near 26.4N 76.0W, moving W 7 knots, and maximum sustained winds 130 knots with gusts to 160 knots. Dorian will move through the northern Bahamas through early Monday. Dorian will turn NW, then NNW, in order to parallel the east coasts of Florida and Georgia through mid week. Tropical storm force winds will stay mainly to the east of the far eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, including the Florida Big Bend area, from Monday night through Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 27N88W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near 23N87W, southeastward into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, near 19N85W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 14N northward from Jamaica westward. The monsoon trough passes through 08N/09N between 73W in Colombia beyond 83W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in Colombia and the Lake Maracaibo area of NW Venezuela, from 06N to 10N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W westward. Category 4 Hurricane Dorian is moving slowly W across the Atlantic Ocean, in the open waters that are just E of the northern Bahamas. A tropical wave, in the far eastern Caribbean Sea, will reach the central Caribbean Sea by Monday night, and the western Caribbean Sea by Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing in the NW Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is within 60 nm of the coasts of South Carolina and Georgia. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the north of the line that runs from 31N81W at the coast, beyond 32N75W. Broad middle level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 50W and 60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to 30N between 50W and 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 30N to 33N between 56W and 63W. A cold front passes through 32N42W to 31N41W to 31N53W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 30N northward between 36W and 54W. An upper level trough extends from a Madeira Archipelago cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic center that is near 30N31W, to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near 24N41W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence surrounds the trough. Category 4 Hurricane Dorian near 26.4N 76.0W 934 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt. Dorian will move to 26.6N 77.1W this afternoon, 26.7N 78.1W Mon morning, 26.9N 78.7W Mon afternoon, 27.0N 79.0W Tue morning, and 27.6N 79.4W Wed morning. Dorian will weaken slightly in intensity as it moves to the 28.9N 79.8W early Thu, and continue to near 31.8N 79.6W early Fri. $$ MT