000 AXNT20 KNHC 311026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 626 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 31/09 UTC, is near 25.8N 72.6W. It is approximately 305 nm east of the Northwest Bahamas and 470 nm east of West Palm Beach, Florida. The maximum sustained winds are 121 kt, making Dorian a Category 4 hurricane. Dorian is moving WNW at 12 kt and has a minimum central pressure of 948 mb. Moderate to strong convection is seen from 22N-27N between 68W-73W. Outer rainbands with embedded thunderstorms are noted from 23N-27N between 69W-74W. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Saturday. Some strengthening is possible today. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been introduced to the map along 20W from 19N southward. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the wave from 17N-20N between 16W-20W and more scattered showers and tstorms from 05N-15N between 17W- 25W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W S of 19N southward, moving W at 20 knots. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 12N-14N between 32W-36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W S of 23N moving W at 10 knots. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 17N-26N between 51W-56W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 16N16W to 12N31W to 12N43W. The ITCZ begins near 12N45W to 12N54W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 12N57W to 11N62W. Aside from the convection near the tropical waves, scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along the monsoon trough from 12N-14N between 35W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends westward from the Florida coast near 28N82W to the SW Louisiana coast near 29N91W. An inverted trough is also extending into the SE Gulf from 27N83W to 25N82W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are across the eastern Gulf associated to the two troughs in the area. Showers and tstorms are from 22N-29N between 82W-88W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds ahead of the trough on the eastern Gulf and light to gentle winds across the basin. The wind field from Dorian could reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico as early as Mon night. Elsewhere, a low pressure center will be in the SE Gulf today, south-central Gulf late tonight, then into the western Gulf by Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An inverted trough is seen in the NW Caribbean from 24N84W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 21N85W to 16N85W. This is providing an anchor for scattered thunderstorms across the northern portions of the basin, from 20N-22N between 80W-84W. The rest of the basin remains under fair weather. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. A tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean this afternoon, then reach the central caribbean by Monday night. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is draped along the western Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N77W and stretches westward to an area south of Jacksonville, Florida near 29N80W. Thunderstorms continue to ignite along the boundary. Scattered showers are seen north of Cuba to the northern Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. An inverted upper trough over the central Atlantic is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 24N-27N between 60W-64W. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic 30N37W to 27N37W, with no significant convection associated with it. Dorian will move to 26.1N 74.0W this afternoon, 26.5N 75.8W Sun morning, 26.7N 77.2W Sun afternoon, 26.9N 78.1W Mon morning, and 27.5N 79.4W Tue morning. Dorian will change little in intensity as it moves to near 29.5N 80.5W early Wed, and continue northward to near 32.0N 80.5W Thu. Dorian will move slowly across the northern Bahamas toward Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Mon night, then move N along the Florida E coast Tue and Wed. Ridge remains in place across the central and eastern portion of the basin. $$ Torres