000 AXNT20 KNHC 310606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 31/03 UTC, is near 25.5N 71.4W. It is approximately 375 nm east of the Northwest Bahamas and 545 nm east of West Palm Beach, Florida. The maximum sustained winds are 121 kt, making Dorian a Category 4 hurricane. Dorian is moving WNW at 10 kt and has a minimum central pressure of 948 mb. Moderate to strong convection is seen from 24N-27N between 68W-73W. Outer rainbands with embedded thunderstorms are noted from 23N-28N between 67W-74W. Dorian will begin a slower west-northwestward to westward motion tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Saturday. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W S of 19N southward, moving W at 20 knots. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 10N-15N between 31W-35W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W S of 21N moving W at 10 knots. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 17N-21N between 50W-56W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 12N34W to 12N46W. The ITCZ begins near 12N47W to 12N55W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 12N57W to 11N62W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along the monsoon trough from 11N-15N between 20W-26W, from 11N-14N between 35W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends westward from the Florida coast near 28N82W to the SW Louisiana coast near 29N91W. An inverted trough is also extending into the SE Gulf from 23N83W to 25N81W. Numerous strong thunderstorms are moving south of the front off the Florida coast seen from the Florida Keys to 24N between 82W- 87W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds ahead of the trough on the eastern Gulf and light to gentle winds across the basin. The wind field from Dorian could reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico as early as Mon night. Elsewhere, a low pressure center will enter the SE Gulf tonight, south- central Gulf Saturday night, then into the western Gulf by Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An inverted trough is seen in the NW Caribbean from 24N83W to 15N84W with a 1010 mb low near 21N83W along the trough. This is providing an anchor for scattered thunderstorms to ignite across the northern portions of the basin, from 20N-22N between 80W-86W and from 18N-20N between 76W-78W. The rest of the basin remains under fair weather. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Hurricane Dorian is moving WNW across the Atlantic Ocean N of Hispaniola. A tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean on Saturday, then reach the central caribbean by Monday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is draped along the western Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N77W and stretches westward to an area south of Jacksonville, Florida near 29N81W. Thunderstorms continue to ignite along the boundary. Scattered showers are seen north of Cuba to the northern Bahamas from 22N-28N between 76W-80W. An inverted upper trough over the central Atlantic is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 21N-31N between 51W-63W. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic 30N37W to 27N37W, with no significant convection associated with it. Dorian will move to 25.9N 72.8W Sat morning, 26.3N 74.5W Sat evening, 26.6N 76.0W Sun morning, 26.8N 77.3W Sun evening, and 27.0N 78.6W Mon evening. Dorian will change little in intensity as it moves to 28.3N 80.5W late Tue, then continues to 30.8N 81.2W Wed. Dorian will move slowly across the northern Bahamas toward Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Mon night, then move N along the Florida E coast Tue and Wed. $$ MMTorres