000 AXNT20 KNHC 310000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 30/2100 UTC, is near 25.0N 70.7W. It is approximately 365 nm east of the Northwest Bahamas and 515 nm east of West Palm Beach, Florida. The maximum sustained winds are 100 kt, making Dorian a Category 3 hurricane. Dorian is moving WNW at 10 kt and has a minimum central pressure of 970 mb. A band of moderate to strong convection is seen from 24N-27N between 68W-72W. Outer rainbands with embedded thunderstorms are noted from 21N-26N between 65W-68W. Dorian will begin a slower west-northwestward to westward motion by tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W S of 19N southward, moving W at 20 knots. Showers are seen on within 100 nm on both sides of this feature. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W S of 22N moving W at 10 knots. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 18N-22N between 50W-56W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 16N17W to 12N29W to 12N44W. The ITCZ begins near 12N44W to 15N54W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 14N56W to 12N63W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along the monsoon trough from 11N-15N between 17W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends westward from the Florida coast near 29N83W to the SW Louisiana coast near 30N93W. An inverted trough is also extending into the SE Gulf from 23N84W to 25N84W. Numerous strong thunderstorms are moving south of the front off the Florida coast seen from 26N-29N between 82W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the SE Gulf around the inverted trough from 23N-26N between 82W-87W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin. Hurricane Dorian will move to near 26.2N 73.8W Saturday afternoon, near 26.5N 75.4W Saturday night, then just NE of the northern Bahamas near 26.8N 76.9W by Sunday evening. Dorian will move slowly across the northern Bahamas toward Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane through early Tuesday, before moving inland over Florida by late Tuesday. The wind field from Dorian could reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico as early as Monday night. Elsewhere, a low pressure center will enter the SE Gulf tonight, south-central Gulf Saturday night, then into the western Gulf by Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An inverted trough is seen in the NW Caribbean from 17N-22N with a 1012 mb low near 21N84W along the trough. This is providing an anchor for scattered thunderstorms to ignite across the northern portions of the basin, from 17N-22N between 77W-86W. The rest of the basin remains under fair weather. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Hurricane Dorian is moving across the Atlantic Ocean N of Hispaniola. A tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean on Saturday, then reach the central Caribbean by Monday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is draped along the western Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N79W and stretches westward to an area south of Jacksonville, Florida near 29N81W. Thunderstorms continue to ignite along the boundary from 29N-31N and W of 78W. Scattered thunderstorms are seen north of Cuba to the northern Bahamas from 22N-28N between 76W-80W. An inverted upper trough over the central Atlantic is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 21N-31N between 51W-63W. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic 27N38W to 31N38W, with no significant convection associated with it. Hurricane Dorian will move to near 26.2N 73.8W Saturday afternoon, near 26.5N 75.4W Saturday night, then just NE of the northern Bahamas near 26.8N 76.9W by Sunday evening. Dorian will move slowly across the northern Bahamas toward Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane through early Tuesday, before moving inland over Florida by late Tuesday. $$ AKR