000 AXNT20 KNHC 301734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 30/1500 UTC, is near 24.5N 69.8W. This position also is about 415 nm/770 km to the east of the NW Bahamas, and also about 575 nm/1060 km to the east of West Palm Beach in Florida. DORIAN is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 9 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 115 knots. Numerous strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 23N to 26N between 68W and 71W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 21N to 28N between 60W and 75W. Dorian will continue across the northern Bahamas toward Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane through early Monday, before moving inland into Florida by early Tuesday. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 21N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Monsoon trough related precipitation is within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from 42W eastward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from 23N southward, moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that goes from 19N to 27N between 49W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W to 11N30W to 13N42W and 12N48W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 480 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 30W eastward, and within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from 42W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through 32N75W, in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida near 29N82W, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, and beyond SW coastal Louisiana. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the northwest of the line that runs through 32N73W to the coast of Florida along 27N/28N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the coastal waters of SW Louisiana. A 500 mb to 700 mb inverted trough is across Florida. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N southward from 87W eastward. An inverted trough is along the coast of Texas, at 500 mb and at 700 mb. Broad cyclonic wind flow is at 250 mb, along the coast of Texas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N to 28N from 94W westward. Hurricane Dorian is near 24.5N 69.8W 972 mb at 11 AM EDT, moving NW 9 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 115 knots. Dorian will intensify to a major hurricane as it moves to 25.3N 71.0W by this evening. Dorian will reach the northern Bahamas near by Sunday evening, then continue across the northern Bahamas toward Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane through early Monday. Dorian will move inland into Florida by early Tuesday. It is possible that the effects from Dorian may be felt starting in parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico as early as Monday. Elsewhere, a separate low pressure center will move westward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, into the south central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and then into the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1012 mb low pressure center is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea near 21N83W. A surface trough is along 82W/83W from 16N to 24N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 73W in Colombia, beyond 85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 30 nm on either side of the line from 09.5N79.5W at the coast of Panama, to 10N80W, to 11N82W. Hurricane Dorian is moving across the Atlantic Ocean NE of Dominican Republic. A tropical wave will enter the Caribbean Sea by Saturday evening, and across the islands on Sunday morning. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the east and central Caribbean Sea, with gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the Bahamas near 24N77W, to the west of Hurricane Dorian. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the east of Florida, from 27N southward from 75W westward. Hurricane Dorian is near 24.5N 69.8W, 972 mb, at 11 AM EDT, moving NW 9 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 115 knots. Dorian will intensify into a major hurricane, as it moves to 25.3N 71.0W by this evening. Dorian will continue to move toward 25.9N 72.7W on Saturday morning; near 26.3N 74.5W by Saturday evening; near 26.6N 76.1W by Sunday morning; then into the northern Bahamas near 26.7N 77.5W by Sunday evening. Dorian will continue across the northern Bahamas toward Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane through early Monday, before moving inland into Florida by early Tuesday. $$ MT