000 AXNT20 KNHC 301023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 623 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dorian centered near 23.8N 69.1W at 30/0900 UTC or 230 nm ENE of the Southeastern Bahamas moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 22N-27N between 64W-73W. The NW motion will continue through the day. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 28W from 04N-21N, is moving W at around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along and east of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W from 05N- 22N, is moving W at around 10 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment, inhibiting significant convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 16N17W to 11N29W to 13N50W. The ITCZ extends from 11N54W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, no significant convection is observed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from 29N90W to 29N83W with little to no convection. South of the front, a broad area of low pressure is analyzed as a surface trough extending from 29N80W to 25N82W. Scattered showers are over the Florida Peninsula and adjacent Gulf waters east of 83W. Mainly gentle winds are noted across the basin in the most recent scatterometer data. The low pressure trough over Florida will move west across the eastern Gulf today, central Gulf Saturday, then into the western Gulf by Sunday enhancing convection. Meanwhile, Hurricane Dorian, currently in the Atlantic, is expected to approach Florida this weekend. Winds and seas could increase as early as Monday in the far eastern Gulf just west of Florida due to Dorian's presence. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered showers over north- central and west Caribbean mainly north of 18N and west of 73W. In the southwest Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers south of 12N between 80W-84W. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. During the next several days, moderate to fresh winds are expected across the east and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean. Seas should remain quiescent during the next several days across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian and the tropical waves in the Atlantic. A surface trough extends across the Florida Peninsula with convection west of 78W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 33N37W. Hurricane Dorian is expected to move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend. $$ ERA