000 AXNT20 KNHC 300532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 131 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dorian centered near 23.3N 68.4W at 30/0300 UTC or 260 nm ENE of the Southeastern Bahamas moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 22N-26N between 64W-71W. The NW motion will continue through Friday. A west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Dorian is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane on Friday, and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 24W from 04N-21N, is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm east of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 51W from 05N- 22N, is moving W at around 10 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment, inhibiting significant convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal near 15N18W to 12N31W to 11N51W. The ITCZ extends from 11N52W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides of the monsoon trough mainly east of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from 29N90W to 29N83W with little to no convection. South of the front, a broad area of low pressure is centered near 24N81W, with surface trough extending from that point to 30N78W. Scattered showers and tstorms are over the Florida Peninsula and adjacent Gulf waters east of 87W. Mainly gentle winds are noted across the basin in the most recent scatterometer data. A surface trough will form in the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, with fresh E or NE winds expected in the northern Gulf during that time, accompanied by increased shower and tstorm activity. The surface trough will migrate to the western Gulf early next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Dorian, currently in the Atlantic, is expected to approach Florida Sunday. Winds and seas could increase as early as Monday in the far eastern Gulf just west of Florida due to Dorian's presence. CARIBBEAN SEA... The effects of the rain bands of Hurricane Dorian over the northeast Caribbean have diminished this evening. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered showers over north-central and west Caribbean mainly north of 18N and west of 71W. In the southwest Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers south of 12N between 80W-84W. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. During the next several days, moderate to fresh winds are expected across the east and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean. Seas should remain quiescent during the next several days across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian and the tropical waves in the Atlantic. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 30N78W to 26N80W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted with this trough mainly west of 78W. To the east, an upper- level low in the central Atlantic is inducing scattered showers and tstorms from 21N-31N between 48W- 60W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 34N37W. Hurricane Dorian is expected to move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend. $$ ERA