387 AXNT20 KNHC 291748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dorian is centered near 21.4N 67.2W at 29/1500 UTC or 190 nm NNW of San Juan Puerto Rico and is moving NW at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 18N-24N between 64W-70W. The NW motion will continue through Friday. By Friday night, a west- northwestward motion is forecast to begin and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days with Dorian expecting to become a major hurricane on Friday and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along the west coast of Africa and far east Atlantic near 20N S of 21N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted from 05N- 19N and east of 23W. A central Atlantic tropical is along 48W S of 22N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment at this time, inhibiting convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal near 14N17W to 11N32W to 11N51W. The ITCZ extends from 11N51W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 04N-11N between 23W-38W. Showers are also seen from 09N-11N between 44W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A front is slowly moving south over the northern Gulf, with a cold front extending from 30N83W to 29N86W, and a stationary front beginning at 29N86W and continues to 29N90W. The stationary front extends farther west right along the northwest Gulf coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen across the NW Gulf from 26N-29N between 87W-95W. Diffluent flow aloft continues to influence scattered showers across the east Gulf mainly east of 84W. Weak ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1015 mb high centered near 26N93W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds over the basin waters. Hurricane Dorian is predicted to be reach the Florida peninsula by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, high pressure will continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Monday, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The outer bands of Dorian continue to bring numerous moderate to strong convection across and south of Puerto Rico and the USVI and from 17N-18N between 65W-67W. Dorian will continue moving farther away from the Caribbean today. Refer to the section above for more details on this system. Upper level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection over the adjacent waters south of Cuba and Cayman Islands from 18N-22N between 76W-86W. In the southwest Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection south of 12N between 77W- 84W. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Winds and seas should remain quiescent during the next several days across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian and the tropical waves in the Atlantic. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 24N79W to 30N78W. Another trough is analyzed from 25N76W to 29N73W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within these features mainly west of 76W. To the east, an upper-level low in the central Atlantic is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 21N- 31N between 48W- 59W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 35N38W. Hurricane Dorian will move to 22.9N 68.1W this evening, 24.5N 69.6W Friday morning, 25.6N 71.4W Friday evening, 26.3N 73.4W Saturday morning, and 27.0N 76.9W Sunday morning, very close to or over the NW Bahamas. By Monday morning, Dorian is forecast to be near or over the Florida peninsula. By Tuesday morning, the hurricane is predicted to be over the Florida peninsula and weakening. Dorian is anticipated to become a major hurricane as early as Friday and remain that way until landfall. $$ AKR