000 AXNT20 KNHC 290959 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 559 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dorian centered near 20.5N 66.6W at 29/0900 UTC or 130 nm NNW of San Juan Puerto Rico moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N-22N between 63W-68W. The northwest motion is expected to continue through the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Dorian is forecast to strengthen into a powerful hurricane during the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. The now Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin is centered near 36.1N 71.6W at 29/0900 UTC or 200 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted on the south side between 90 and 240 nm from the center. The cyclone is expected to turn north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed on Thu. The cyclone is expected to become extratropical on Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along the west coast of Africa and far east Atlantic from 21N18W to 03N19W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-17N and east of 20W. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 47W extends from 21N southward, is moving W around 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment at this time, inhibiting convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 16N17W to 14N48W to 12N50W. The ITCZ extends from 12N50W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered showers and tstorms are from 05N-10N between 20W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near 27N92W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds over the Gulf waters. Diffluent flow aloft is enhancing scattered showers across the east Gulf mainly east of 84W. High pressure will continue across the basin through the weekend, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. There is potential for Hurricane Dorian to enter the NE Gulf early next week. Refer to the section above for details on Dorian. CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Dorian north of the basin is producing shower activity across the northeast Caribbean. Dorian will continue moving away from the Caribbean today. Refer to the section above for more details on this system. Upper level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection over the adjacent waters south of Cuba and Cayman Islands. In the southwest Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection south of 11N between 78W- 84W. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Erin, and the tropical waves in the Atlantic. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 30N79W to 27N80W. Another trough is analyzed from 28N72W to 25N75W. Scattered showers are noted within these features mainly west of 75W. To the east, an upper-level low near 27N56W is inducing scattered showers from 25N-31N between 51W-60W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 35N39W. Hurricane Dorian will move to 21.9N 67.6W this afternoon, 23.7N 69.0W Fri morning, 25.1N 70.6W Fri afternoon, 26.0N 72.5W Sat morning, and 27.0N 76.4W Sun morning. Dorian will change little in intensity as it moves to 27.5N 79.5W early Mon, then weaken inland over Florida on Tue. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and become a major hurricane during the next few days over Atlantic waters. $$ ERA