000 AXNT20 KNHC 290001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dorian is near 19.2N 65.7W or about 50 nm NNE of San Juan Puerto Rico as of 29/0000 UTC, moving NW at 11 kt. Minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm NW, 180 nm NE, 240 nm SE and 30 nm SW of the center. The northwest motion is expected to continue through the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should move away from the U.S. and British Virgin Islands tonight and then move over the Atlantic well east of the SE Bahamas Thu and Fri. Dorian is forecast to strengthen into a powerful hurricane during the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Erin is centered near 34.5N 72.7W at 28/2100 UTC, or 145 nm ESE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb, based on a buoy observation received at 2100 UTC. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is seen on the south side between 90 and 240 nm from the center. The cyclone is expected to turn north- northeastward tonight with an increase in forward speed on Thu. The cyclone is expected to become extratropical on Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added to the analysis along the W coast of Africa from 21N15W to 04N18W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N-09N between 16W-26W, and from 13N-21N between 15W- 18W. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44/45W extends from 21N southward, and is moving W around 5-10 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment at this time, inhibiting convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of the Senegal/Guinea- Bissau border near 12N17W to 09N24W to 10N40W to 10N50W. The ITCZ extends from 10N50W to 11N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered showers and tstorms are from 05N-10N between 26W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 24N88W. An upper-level trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico is inducing scattered moderate convection over southern Louisiana, coastal Texas, and the NW Gulf from 26.5N-29N between 94W-97W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cover much of the remainder of the Gulf, northeast of a line from 21N88W to 26N97W. The latest ASCAT pass shows mostly gentle winds over the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Sun night, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. There is some potential for Hurricane Dorian to enter the NE Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Dorian is producing shower and thunderstorm activity north of 13N and east of 68W. Dorian will continue moving away from the Caribbean tonight, to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. See the section above for details. Scattered tstorms are seen over southern Cuba and the adjacent waters just south of Cuba. Isolated tstorms are near the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. In the far SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection south of 11.5N between 78W-84W. Most of the open waters of the central Caribbean have fair weather due to dry air over the area. Expect mainly moderate to fresh trade winds across the south- central Caribbean during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian, T.D. Erin, and the tropical waves in the Atlantic. A surface trough extends south of T.D. Erin from 33N72W to 30N72W to 25N75W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen across the Old Bahama Channel and portions of the Bahamas and South Florida. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are elsewhere southwest of a line from 23N62W to 32N70W. An upper-level low near 27N56W is inducing scattered showers and tstorms from 25N-31N between 51W-58W. The remainder of the basin is under surface ridging, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 35N39W. Hurricane Dorian is forecast to move to near 22N68W by 2pm Thu, near 25N71W 2pm Fri, near 27N75W 2pm Sat, near 28N79W 2pm Sun, then inland into Florida. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and become a powerful hurricane during the next few days over the Atlantic waters. $$ Hagen