000 AXNT20 KNHC 281752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dorian centered near 17.5N 64.5W at 28/1500 UTC or 25 nm SE of St. Croix moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection extends out from the center 215 nm in the northern semicircle and 80 nm in the southern semicircle. The northwest motion is expected to continue through the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should move near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and then continue over the open Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression is centered near 33.6N 72.8W at 28/1500 UTC or 470 nm WNW of Bermuda moving NNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection extends out 280 nm in the southern semicircle. The cyclone is expected to turn northward later today then north- northeastward early Thursday morning with an increase in forward speed. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 45W from 21N southward, is moving W at about 15 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment at this time, inhibiting convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 07N30W to 12N45W to 09N50W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 11N61W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present along the monsoon trough 04N-13N between the coast of Liberia extending W to 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 23N84W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are developing from 26N-29N between 82W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts light and gentle winds in the southeast Gulf and moderate northwest winds in the eastern Gulf and in the eastern Bay of Campeche with the thermal trough. High pressure will continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Sun night, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Dorian is producing cloudiness and convection from Guadalupe to the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. See the section above for details. For information about the tropical wave, see the section above for details. Dry air covers most of the basin west of 68W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southern Caribbean Sea south of 10N between 75W-82W near the monsoon trough. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds just north of Colombia, while moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through midweek. The Bermuda high and Colombian low will promote fresh to strong NE trade winds over the south-central Caribbean today, but diminish on Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on T.S. Dorian, T.S. Erin, and the tropical wave in the central Atlantic. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from T.D. Erin to 29N72W to 30N72W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted north of 27N between 70W-74W, and from 29N-30N between 77W-79W. An upper-level low near 23N68W is inducing scattered showers from in the southern Bahamas from 20N-25N between 71W-76W. The remainder of the basin is under surface ridging, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 34N40W. Tropical Storm Dorian will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 65.7W late today, move to 20.5N 67.0W Thu morning, 22.4N 68.4W Thu evening, 24.2N 69.9W Fri morning, and 26.5N 74.0W Sat morning. Dorian may continue to intensity as it moves toward the northwest to near 27.7N 77.7W early Sun, and continue toward the west-northwest near 28.6N 80.3W Mon. $$ MMTorres