000 AXNT20 KNHC 281003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 603 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dorian centered near 16.8N 63.9W at 28/0900 UTC or 70 nm SE of St. Croix moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection extends out from the center 120 nm in the northern semicircle and 90 nm in the southern semicircle. The northwest motion is expected to continue through the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Dorian is then forecast to move to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and near or to the east of the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Erin centered near 32.5N 72.4W at 28/0900 UTC or 380 nm W of Bermuda moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection extends out 180 nm in the southern semicircle. The cyclone is expected to turn northward later today then north- northeastward early Thursday morning with an increase in forward speed. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but then gradually weaken Thursday as it completes a transition to an extratropical cyclone. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 46W from 21N southward, is moving W at about 15 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment at this time, inhibiting convection. A tropical wave with axis along 88W from 20N southward, is moving W around 10-15 kt. Dry air is noted in the wave's environment, limiting convection over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted over Central America and the EPAC waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 19N16W to 12N48W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 12N59W. Scattered showers are noted south of the monsoon trough from 08N-10N and east of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near 25N85W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate SE to S winds in the western Gulf, and fresh in the eastern Bay of Campeche with the thermal trough. Light to gentle winds prevail over the E Gulf. High pressure will continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Sat night, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and seas generally under 4 ft. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Dorian is producing cloudiness and convection in the E Caribbean east of 67W. See the section above for details. A tropical wave is along 88W. See the section above for details. Dry air covers most of the basin west of 67W. Scattered showers are noted over the south central Caribbean south of 10N between 78W-82W near the monsoon trough. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds just north of Colombia, while moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on T.S. Dorian, T.S. Erin, and the tropical wave in the central Atlantic. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from T.S. Erin to 29N72W to 25N74W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted north of 22N between 70W-80W. An upper-level low near 31N53W is inducing scattered showers from 23N-30N between 50W-55W. The remainder of the basin is under surface ridging, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 35N39W. Fresh to strong winds south of T.S. Erin and east of the surface trough will diminish to less than 20 kt by this evening as Erin continues moving farther away to the north of the area. Meanwhile, T.S. Dorian will move northwest entering the west-central Atlantic on Thu while strengthening to a hurricane near 23.3N 69.6W on Fri morning. The system will then move near 26.1N 73.0W by Sat morning. Dorian will change little in intensity as it moves to 27.7N 77.1W early Sun, and continue to 29.0N 80.0W on Mon. $$ ERA