000 AXNT20 KNHC 272359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 15.8N 62.7W at 28/0000 UTC or 260 nm SE of Ponce Puerto Rico moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends outward to 270 nm in the eastern semicircle, with isolated strong convection seen extending to 90 nm from the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection extends out to 120 nm in the NW quadrant and 60 nm in the SW quadrant. The west-northwest motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a NW turn on Wed. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over western and central Puerto Rico on Wed. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Slow strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, followed by weakening as Dorian interacts with the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wed night. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Six is centered near 31.8N 71.8W at 27/2100 UTC or 355 nm W of Bermuda moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection extends out 180 nm in the SE quadrant. A turn to the NE with an increase in forward speed is expected on Wed. The cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm on Wed, but it should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics and weaken on Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment at this time, limiting convection. Isolated showers are south of 11N between 35W and the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W from 20N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Dry air is noted in the wave's environment, limiting convection over the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are noted in the SW Caribbean south of 13N and west of 80W and inland over Panama through Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 11N30W to 10N51W. Scattered moderate showers are seen from 05N-10N between 10W-30W. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen along the coast of Senegal. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 25N86W. Mid to upper level ridging is also over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers with isolated tstorms are north of 26.5N and east of 92W. Similar activity is seen along coastal areas from Freeport Texas to South Florida. The ASCAT pass from midday Tuesday shows moderate SE to S winds in the western Gulf, but fresh in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds are in the E Gulf. High pressure will continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday night, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Dorian is producing cloudiness and convection in the E Caribbean east of 66W. See section above for details. A tropical wave is along 86W. See section above for details. Dry air covers most of the basin west of 67W. Scattered showers and tstorms are mainly only occurring over the islands of the Greater Antilles. The ASCAT pass from late Tuesday morning shows strong trades from 11N-15N between 73W-78W, with near gales from 11N-13N between 74W-77W. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through midweek. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Dorian, T.D. Six and the tropical wave in the central Atlantic. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from T.D. Six to 28N72W to 25N76W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted from 23N-27N between 71W-79W including most of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are mainly noted on the E side of the trough and N of 27N. An upper-level low near 23N67W is inducing scattered showers and tstorms from 23N-26N between 66W-69W. To the east, another elongated upper-level low near 31N53W is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 24N-32N between 49W- 56W. The remainder of the basin is under surface high pressure ridging, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 36N40W. Fresh to strong winds south of T.D. Six and east of the surface trough will diminish to less than 20 kt by Wed evening as T.D. Six continues moving farther away to the north of the area. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Dorian will move north of the Mona Passage Wed night. By 2pm local time Friday, Dorian is forecast to be near 24N72W, then to near the E coast of central Florida on Sunday. $$ Hagen