000 AXNT20 KNHC 271759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dorian centered near 14.2N 61.8W at 27/1500 UTC or 60 nm WNW of St. Lucia moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N-17N between 57W-63W. The west-northwest motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a northwest turn on Wed. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Six centered near 31.2N 71.2W at 27/1500 UTC or 370 nm SE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving SE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convection is to the south of the low along a surface trough that extends from 30N71W to the NW Bahamas near 24N76W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 22N-31N between 68W-77W. Some slight strengthening is expected over the next day or so and the depression is expected to intensify to a tropical storm by tonight or on Wednesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W from 21N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment at this time, limiting convection. Scattered showers are near the wave axis south of 10N near the monsoon trough. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Dry air is noted in the wave's environment, limiting convection at this time over the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are noted inland and along the eastern coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica in the southern portion of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 09N33W to 06N47W. Scattered showers are noted along the coast of Africa south of Guinea-Bissau to Liberia extending west of the monsoon trough to 27W and from 06N-10N between 32W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 39N77W. Scattered moderate convection has developed along the Florida west coast from the FL panhandle to the Keys. A few showers extend into the Gulf from 25N-29N between 82W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds on the eastern Gulf and moderate southeast winds west of 90W. High pressure will continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Sat night, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and light seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Dorian is approaching the eastern Caribbean at this time. See the section above for details. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. Dry air covers much of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with locally fresh winds noted across the central Caribbean between 75W-81W. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through midweek. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Dorian, T.D. Six and the tropical wave in the E Atlantic. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from T.D. Six from 30N71W to 25N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N-31N between 68W-77W. To the east, an upper-level low in the west-central Atlantic is enhancing scattered showers from 24N54W to 30N51W. Scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh easterly winds from 12N-17N between west of 68W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Tropical Depression Six will become extratropical Fri morning as it continues to the northeast. Tropical Storm Dorian, currently moving into the eastern Caribbean, is forecast to move across the northeast Caribbean through mid week before moving north of Hispaniola to near 19.5N 69.0W by Thu morning. Dorian will then track NW across the Bahamas through Sat night. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER