000 AXNT20 KNHC 271013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 613 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dorian centered near 13.5N 60.7W at 27/0900 UTC or 30 nm SE of St. Lucia moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N-15N between 58W-62W. The west-northwest motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a northwest turn on Wed. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Six centered near 31.0N 71.6W at 27/0900 UTC or 320 nm SE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving SE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 25N-31N between 69W-76W. Some slight strengthening is expected over the next day or so and the depression is expected to intensify to a tropical storm by tonight. The system is expected to meander through Tuesday before accelerating northeastward through Wednesday, then northeastward from Thursday through Saturday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W from 21N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment at this time, limiting convection. Scattered showers are near the wave axis south of 10N. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 06N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Dry air is noted in the wave's environment, limiting convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted across the northern portion of the wave, mainly south of Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 22N17W to 15N28W to 13N47W. No significant convection is noted along this boundary at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 24N84W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin. High pressure will continue across the area through Fri night. The high will maintain moderate to fresh south to southeast winds over the waters west of 90W, while winds will continue light to gentle east of 90W through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Dorian is approaching the eastern Caribbean at this time. See the section above for details. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. Dry air covers much of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with locally fresh winds noted across the central Caribbean between 75W-81W. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse over the south-central Caribbean through midweek. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Dorian, T.D. Six and the tropical wave in the E Atlantic. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from T.D. Six from 30N72W to 25N77W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 69W-76W. To the east, an upper-level low in the west-central Atlantic is enhancing scattered showers from 24N-28N between 51W-57W. Scatterometer data depicts a surface trough within this activity from 34N58W to 26N57W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Aside from T.D. Six near the northern border of the forecast area, gentle to moderate SE winds will continue across the western Atlantic during the next couple of days. T.S. Dorian, currently in the tropical north Atlantic, is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through Wed and eastern Hispaniola Wed night into Thu. Dorian will move N of Hispaniola as a tropical storm Thu, and track NW across the Bahamas through Sat night. Expect increasing winds and building seas for those waters affected by Dorian. $$ ERA