000 AXNT20 KNHC 261906 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 305 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. ...UPDATED FOR SPECIAL FEATURES... Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dorian centered near 12.5N 58.3W at 26/1800 UTC or 180 nm ESE of St. Lucia moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N- 15N between 53W-61W. The west-northwest motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. An elongated area of low pressure located about 260 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina has become a little better defined since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form later today while the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the United States east coast. The chance for tropical cyclone formation of this system within the next 48 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment at this time, limiting convection. Scattered showers are from 06N-10N between 34W-36W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W from 07N-20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Dry air is also noted in the wave's environment, limiting convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly north of 18N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 18N16W to 10N34W to 10N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered showers are noted 07N-09N 37W-47W. Due to the presence of Saharan dust, no significant convection is noted north of 12N. Scattered showers and tstorms are near the coast of Africa south of 11N between 12W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered showers are noted over the northwest Gulf north of 23N and west of 89W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen along the northern Gulf from coast of Louisiana to the FL Panhandle. Scattered moderate convection is in southern Florida from 25N85W across the peninsula to 26N79W. This activity is supported by upper level diffluence. Relatively weak high pressure will continue across the area through Fri night. The high will maintain moderate to fresh south to southeast winds over the waters west of 90W. Winds will be mainly light to gentle east of 90W through the period. An upper- level trough will help trigger off scattered showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf waters through early Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Fair weather prevails across the basin as a dry Saharan airmass covers the area. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across the basin, with fresh winds over the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will increase in areal coverage through Tue, then decrease some Tue afternoon and increase briefly increase again Tue night before decreasing Wed. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue night. Tropical Storm Dorian is near 12.3N 57.7W 1002 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Dorian will move to 12.9N 59.4W this evening, 13.9N 61.4W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N 63.5W Tue evening, reach near 16.4N 65.6W Wed morning and near 17.7N 67.6W Thu morning. Dorian will move inland over eastern Hispaniola early Thu and weaken back to a tropical storm near 22.0N 72.6W early on Fri, then track to northwest while slowly strengthening as it reaches the vicinity of the NW Bahamas on Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on T.S. Dorian and the surface low over the west Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the eastern Atlantic. A 1010 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic near 31N72W. A surface trough extends from the low to 26N78W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 250 nm SE of the trough or from 24N-31N between 69W-76W. To the east, a 1018 mb high is centered over the west-central Atlantic near 26N59W. The low pressure will slowly lift northeastward through Wed, while the trough gradually shifts eastward across the northern waters and dissipates by early Thu. Otherwise, gentle to moderate SE winds will continue across the area. Tropical Storm Dorian, currently in the tropical Atlantic, is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean Sea as a hurricane by the middle of the week and near the far southern waters as a tropical storm by Fri night. Expect increasing winds and building seas for those waters affected by Dorian. $$ MMTorres