000 AXNT20 KNHC 260529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dorian centered near 11.7N 55.3W at 26/0300 UTC or 260 nm ESE of Barbados moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N- 14N between 52W-58W. Dorian will turn toward the west- northwest on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. An elongated area of low pressure centered about 300 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has changed little in organization this evening. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United States. Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. The chance for tropical cyclone formation of this system within the next 48 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 06N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's environment at this time, limiting convection. Scattered showers are from 06N-10N between 28W-38W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 09N-21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Dry air is also noted in the wave's environment, limiting convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted over Hispaniola mainly north of 18N. A tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula and EPAC waters with axis along 88W from 05N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the EPAC waters mainly south of 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 19N16W to 17N25W to 11N45W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, no significant convection is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the northwest Gulf north of 24N and west of 90W. This activity is supported by upper level diffluence. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through Thu night. The high will maintain moderate to fresh south to southeast winds over the waters west of 90W. Winds will be mainly light to gentle east of 90W through the period. Upper level disturbances will keep unsettled weather conditions over much of the northern Gulf through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Fair weather prevails across the basin as a dry Saharan airmass covers the area. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across the basin, with fresh winds over the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will gradually increase in areal coverage through Mon. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Wed. Refer to the section above for details on T.S. Dorian, which is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on T.S. Dorian and the surface low over the west Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the eastern Atlantic. A 1011 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic near 31N75W. A surface trough extends from the low to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and east of the trough mainly north of 26N between 70W-76W. To the east, a 1020 mb high is centered over the west-central Atlantic near 28N64W. The surface trough over the west Atlantic will shift eastward across the northern waters. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will continue across the area. T.S. Dorian, is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean as a hurricane by the middle of the week and near the far southern waters as a tropical storm by late in the week. Expect increasing winds and building over those waters with the approach of Dorian. $$ ERA