000 AXNT20 KNHC 252352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 752 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 11.5N 54.2W at 25/2100 UTC or 330 nm ESE of Barbados moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 10N-13N between 53W-55W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N-14N between 51W-57W. Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The Public Advisories on Tropical Storm DORIAN are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The Marine Forecast on Tropical Storm DORIAN are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. A 1011 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N76W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to near Lake Okeechobee Florida at 27N81W, to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 25N86W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N- 31N between 70W-78W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United States. Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission is scheduled to investigate the system on Monday. The chance for tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 06N-20N, moving W 10 at knots. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 26W-38W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 08N-21N, moving W at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Hispaniola from 18N-20N between 71W-73W. Similar convection is over NW Venezuela from 09N-12N between 68W-72W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W from 07N-22N, moving W at 10-15 knots. Widely scattered moderate convection is inland from the Yucatan Peninsula to N Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 19N16W to the Cabo Verde Islands near 17N25W to 10N35W to 10N45W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 05N-15N between 07W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a surface trough is over the SE Gulf of Mexico. The remainder of the Gulf has southerly return flow. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf and S Texas from 25N-30N between 89W-99W. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through Thu night. The high will maintain moderate to fresh south to southeast winds over the waters west of 90W. Winds will be mainly light to gentle east of 90W through the period. Upper level disturbances will keep unsettled weather conditions over much of the NW and north-central Gulf through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. Besides the convection already mentioned, scattered moderate convection is over Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered moderate convection is also inland over Costa Rica mostly due the the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will gradually increase in areal coverage through Mon. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Wed. Tropical Storm Dorian is near 11.5N 54.2W 1003 mb at 5 PM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Dorian will move to 11.8N 55.9W Mon morning, 12.4N 58.2W Mon afternoon, 13.1N 60.3W Tue morning, 14.1N 62.3W Tue afternoon, and strengthen to a hurricane near 16.4N 66.4W Wed afternoon. Dorian will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 18.5N 70.0W Thu afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two Special features are over the Atlantic basin. See above. A tropical wave is also over the E Atlantic. See above. A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 27N61W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N62W. Upper level diffluence SE of the center is producing scattered moderate convection from 27N-30N between 55W-59W. A surface low and trough prevails over the NW Atlantic helping produce scattered scattered moderate convection with strong gusty winds and rough seas. The trough will shift eastward across the northern waters. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will continue across the area. Tropical Storm Dorian, currently in the tropical Atlantic, is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean Sea as a hurricane by the middle of the week and near the far southern Atlantic waters as a tropical storm by late in the week. Expect increasing winds and building over those waters with the approach of Dorian. $$ Formosa