000 AXNT20 KNHC 251045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 11.0N 51.6W at 25/0900 UTC, approximately 480 nm ESE of Barbados, and is moving W at 11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb with maximum sustained wind speed at 35 kt and gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N- 13N between 51W- 54W. Dorian is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles late Monday or early Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Dorian could be near hurricane strength over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. See latest NHC public forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. See latest NHC marine forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details or visit www.hurricanes.gov. A 1012 mb surface low continues to be centered over South Florida near 26N81W, with a surface trough extending from the low from 24N84W to 30N77W. Convection is seen firing off along the trough and in the SE Gulf, from 25N-31N between 72W-82W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United States. Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. The chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours is medium. See latest NHC public forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details or visit www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W S of 20N, moving W at 10 knots. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W S of 20N, moving W at 15-20 knots. No significant convection is noted at this time. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W S of 22N, moving W at 10-15 knots. Isolated thunderstorms are noted near the northern portion of the wave near SW Cuba. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in Costa Rica and parts of Nicaragua from 09N-13N between 82W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 17N16W to 16N28W to 12N42W. The ITCZ begins near 12N45W to 12N49W, then W of T.S. Dorian near 10N53W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 07N- 11N between 15N- 38W. Scattered thunderstorms are also moving off the west African coast from 05N- 12N and E of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid level low over the NW Gulf of Mexico continues to bring rounds of scattered moderate convection. This activity is noted from 24N-30N between 89W-97W. Scattered thunderstorms are also seen just in the south-central Gulf from 23N-25N between 85W-87W. Otherwise, surface ridging is seen across the basin anchored by a 1015 mb high near 28N87W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light anticyclonic winds in the eastern and central Gulf, with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Moderate northeasterly winds are seen NW of the Yucatan due to the Yucatan trough noted from 18N82W to 21N90W. High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Thursday night. The high will maintain moderate to fresh south to southeast winds over the waters west of 90W. Winds will be mainly light to gentle east of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection continues to move through the Windward Passage, mostly from 18N-20N between 73W-77W. Thunderstorms are also noted between Cuba and the Cayman Islands from 20N-22N between 79W-80W. Numerous strong convection, enhanced by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, is impacting the SW Caribbean along the Colombia and Panama coasts S of 11N between 76W- 82W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades in the eastern and western basin. Light winds are in the northern Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will gradually increase in areal coverage through Monday. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras at night Monday through Wednesday. See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Dorian. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-level low is slowly drifting eastward across the central Atlantic, with a surface trough associated with this feature analyzed from 22N65W to 28N59W. These two features continue to produce scattered thunderstorms across the area from 21N-31N between 50W-65W. Another trough in the central Atlantic is seen from 26N45W to 31N44W with showers seen within 100 nm of the feature from 25N-28N. Another surface trough is analyzed farther east from 30N29W to 37N27W with showers seen along it. A developing area of low pressure NE of Cape Canaveral, Florida near 29N79W will track NE away from the coast of Florida into the western Atlantic today and tonight. Winds converging on the east side of this system will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and rough seas, over the waters west of 72W the next couple of days. See the Special Features section for more information on this system. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will continue across the area. Tropical Storm Dorian will approach the southern waters, possibly as a hurricane, the middle of next week. $$ AKR