000 AXNT20 KNHC 250001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 10.7N 49.1W at 24/2100 UTC or 630 nm ESE of Barbados moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-12N between 49W-41W. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. See latest NHC public forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. See latest NHC marine forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. A surface trough extends from 30N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to an inland Florida 1011 mb low near 26N81W S of Lake Okeechobee. The trough continues from the low center to 24N81W in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is near the low center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the N Bahamas and the W Atlantic from 25N-30N between 76W-79W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves northeastward over the Atlantic offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary. The chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 28 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 07N-21N, moving W at 10 knots. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. afternoon. Dorian will change little in intensity as it moves to A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W from 07N-19N, moving W at 10-15 knots. Isolated moderate moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands from 15N-18N between 62W-67W. Scattered moderate convection is inland over N Venezuela from 06N-11N between 62W- 66W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 06N-19N, moving W at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is over Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean, Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia, from 04N-12N between 72W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 18N16W to the central sections of the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N24W to 10N40W to 10N44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over W Africa from 05N-18N between 08W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid level low is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 25N-30N between 90W-99W. Elsewhere, Isolated moderate convection is over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida from 22N-25N between 80W-86W. Surface high pressure will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico through Thu night. This will produce moderate to fresh south to southeast over the waters west of 90W and mainly light to gentle winds east of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. Besides the convection already mentioned, widely scattered moderate convection is inland over N Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will gradually increase in areal coverage through Mon. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Wed. Tropical Storm Dorian is near 10.7N 49.1W 1008 mb at 5 PM EDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Dorian will move to 11.0N 50.7W Sun morning, 11.4N 52.8W Sun afternoon, 11.9N 54.9W Mon morning, 12.7N 57.0W Mon afternoon, and strengthen to a hurricane near 14.6N 61.1W Tue afternoon. Dorian will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.5N 65.3W Wed afternoon, and near 18.4N 69.0W Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two Special features are over the Atlantic basin. See above. A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic. See above. A 1022 mb high is centered over the central atlantic near 34N51W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N62W. Upper level diffluence SE of the center is producing scattered moderate convection from 26N-32N between 70W-75W. A weak area of low pressure over S Florida will track offshore the east-central coast of Florida Sun. This system will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and rough seas, over the waters west of 72W the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for tropical cyclone development of this system once it moves back over the Atlantic waters. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will continue across the area. Tropical Storm Dorian will approach the southern waters, possibly as a hurricane, the middle of next week. $$ Formosa