000 AXNT20 KNHC 241754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression FIVE developed, at 24/1500 UTC, near 10.4N 47.9W. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. The depression is moving westward, or 280 degrees, 10 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center of the depression in the NW quadrant. Public Advisories about Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/ Advisories about Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. A surface trough extends from 30N79W in the Atlantic Ocean, to an inland Florida 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 27N80W just to the NE of Lake Okeechobee. The trough continues from the low center to 24N84W in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 250 nm to 420 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 120 nm to 200 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area that extends from Cuba and 20N northward from 70W westward. Significant development of the low pressure center is unlikely today, while the low pressure center drifts northward across the southern or central Florida peninsula. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, once the low pressure center moves off the east-central coast of Florida and into the western Atlantic Ocean by Sunday. It is likely that a tropical or subtropical depression may form early next week, while the system is moving northeastward, offshore of the southeastern United States coast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, S of 22N, moving W 10 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 11N to 26N between Africa and 40W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, S of 20N, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm to the east of the wave, and within 360 nm to the west of the wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, S of 19N, moving W 10 to 15 knots. An upper level inverted trough extends from the coastal areas of Honduras, toward northern Colombia and Venezuela. Warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating/weakening precipitation are from 17N northward between the Windward Passage and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 18N16W, across the central sections of the Cabo Verde Islands, to 12N36W, toward T.D. FIVE. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of the line that extends from 09N13W 09N25W 10N31W 08N40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 700 mb shows a cyclonic circulation center and trough in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the central coastal plains of Louisiana, along the Texas Gulf coast, into the Deep South of Texas. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters, in the NW corner of the area, from 26N northward to the coast from 92W to the coast. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N to 30N between 90W and 91W, and into the coastal sections of SE Louisiana. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W. The current weak 1017 mb high pressure center, that is near 28N87W, will be replaced by a high pressure center that will move northward from Cuba to the SE Gulf of Mexico by the middle part of the next week. The related surface pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds in the waters west of 90W, and mainly light to gentle winds will continue east of 90W during the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb shows an upper level inverted trough, roughly along a W-to-E line, from coastal Honduras, into the central Caribbean Sea, toward Colombia and Venezuela. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and 81W in Panama, and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 77W and 82W, and within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough in clusters between 76W and 82W. Fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will increase gradually in areal coverage through Monday. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night, from Monday through Wednesday. Newly formed Tropical Depression Five near 10.4N 47.9W 1010 mb at 11 AM EDT is moving W 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 35 kt. The depression will move near 10.7N 49.4W this evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 11.0N 51.4W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, reach near 11.4N 53.5W Sun evening, and continue to intensify gradually, as it reaches near 12.0N 55.5W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt, near 13.6N 59.3W Tue morning. It is forecast to intensify to a minimal hurricane, as it moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea near 15.2N 63.1W early Wed, with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts to 80 kt. ATLANTIC OCEAN... One upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N28W. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N40W. A third upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N47W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent near the cyclonic centers, as they are surrounded by comparatively drier air in subsidence. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 32N63W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 330 nm to the east of the cyclonic center in the E semicircle. A surface trough is along 29N58W 26N61W 23N61W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 360 nm to the east of the trough. A surface trough, that curves away from a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 35N41W, passes through 32N38W to 30N41W. Rainshowers are possible from 23N northward between 35W and 50W. A weak area of low pressure that is in S Florida will track north-northeastward across the Florida peninsula today and tonight, and be offshore the east-central coast of Florida on Sunday. This system will continue to bring scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and rough seas, to the waters west of 72W during the next few days. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for tropical cyclone development of this system, once it moves into the Atlantic Ocean waters again. Gentle to moderate SE winds will continue elsewhere across the area, under a relatively weak pressure pattern. $$ MT