000 AXNT20 KNHC 231016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 616 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Chantal is centered near 37.1N 40.9W at 23/0900 UTC or 665 nm W of the Azores moving SE at 7 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1010 mb and maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen within 120 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Chantal is forecast to weaken to a remnant low tonight. See the latest NHC forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22/23W from 21N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N-14N between 19W-31W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51/52W from 06N-21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Little to no significant convection is associated with the wave at this time except for scattered moderate convection from 08N-11N between 45W-49W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73/74W from 21N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the Windward Passage and also over NW Venezuela and N Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 12N22W to a 1012 mb low near 10N41W to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N52W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-11N between 40W-44W in association with the 1012 mb surface low near 10N41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level low over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 22.5N to southern Louisiana between 87W-98W. Scattered showers are also in the western Bay of Campeche. A 1017 mb surface high is near 27N85W. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh winds in the eastern Gulf with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf. Expect scattered showers and tstorms for the NW and north-central Gulf today in association with the mid-level low. Weak high pressure will remain over the NE Gulf through early next week, supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds east of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air covers much of the Caribbean. Isolated showers and tstorms prevail north of 17N between 66W-84W. Similar activity is seen in the far SW Caribbean close to Panama and southern Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras at night through Tue. The areal coverage of fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase over the weekend and extend to the SW Caribbean by early next week as a tropical wave moves from the eastern to the central basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A sharp surface trough extends from 29N78W to a 1013 mb surface low near 25N79.5W to 23N79W. The analysis of the surface low and the trough are well-supported by surface observations, ASCAT winds, satellite imagery and WSR-88D Doppler radar from Miami Florida. Scattered moderate showers are seen across the NW Bahamas and adjacent waters from 22N-30N between 73W-80W. The low will move near or over South Florida later today, and near the coast of east-central Florida on Saturday. After that time, some development is possible while the low moves offshore the southeast coast of the U.S. late this weekend and early next week. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 2 days and a medium chance within the next 5 days. Locally heavy rains are possible over the northwest Bahamas and southern and central Florida during the next few days. Scattered showers and tstorms will continue W of 72W the next few days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will dominate the western Atlantic, except over the NW forecast waters where the low pressure will support fresh to strong winds on Sunday. Currently, an upper-level low near 32N66W is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 27N-32N between 57W-73W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 33N54W. $$ Hagen