000 AXNT20 KNHC 230607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 207 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Chantal is centered near 37.8N 41.9W at 23/0300 UTC or 730 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving SE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen within 180 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle and within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Chantal is forecast to weaken to a remnant low Friday night. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory at hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W from 20N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N-12N between 20W-28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W from 06N-19N, moving W around 15 kt. Little to no significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 20N southward, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are near and over Hispaniola and also over NW Venezuela and N Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Senegal/Mauritania border near 16N16W to 10N22W to 10N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 39W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing scattered showers and isolated tstorms north of 24N between 87W- 95W. A surface trough just E of South Florida is helping to induce scattered showers off the SW coast of Florida to the Florida Keys. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh winds in the eastern Gulf with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf. Expect enhanced showers and tstorms for the NW and north-central Gulf through Friday in association with the mid-level trough. High pressure will remain elsewhere across the area maintaining gentle to moderate winds across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air covers much of the Caribbean. Isolated showers and tstorms prevail north of 17N between 67W-83W. Similar activity is seen in the far SW Caribbean close to Panama and southern Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras through this morning before diminishing. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue over the south- central Caribbean through Tue night, while expanding in coverage this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A sharp surface trough, associated with a broad area of low pressure, extends from 29N77W to 25N79W to 22N78W. Surface observations and the latest ASCAT pass clearly show this sharp trough at the surface. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen across the NW Bahamas and adjacent waters from 24N-30N between 73W-80W, with showers also seen in the Florida Straits. Slow development is possible during the next several days while it moves near the coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the SE U.S. coast. The system has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few days. An upper-level low near 32N66W is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 26N-29N between 63W-73W and from 27N-32N between 58W-63W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high near 32N53W. $$ Hagen