000 AXNT20 KNHC 230001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Chantal centered near 38.4N 42.9W at 22/1800 UTC or 684 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the center from 37N-40N between 40W-42W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-15N between 16W-24W. A 1011 mb low is embedded on the monsoon trough near 10N37W. Scattered showers are seen from 10N-11N between 38W-40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 19N46W to 05N44W moving W at 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show a moisture maximum associated with the wave. Isolated showers are along and within 200 nm E of the wave axis near the monsoon trough. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W from 19N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers cover the NE Caribbean north of 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 16N16W to a 1011 mb low near 10N37W to 10N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to the coast of Venezuela near 07N57W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa near the coast of Sierra Leone and Guinea. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high is centered over S Georgia near 31N83W. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 25N93W to 19N94W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is across much of the central and western Gulf, from 21N-29N between 86W-96W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the SW Gulf near 21N94W and upper high is centered over the N Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W. Upper level diffluence is over the N Gulf enhancing convection in the area west of 86W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted across the northern Gulf from the Louisiana coast to the Florida Panhandle and across the peninsula. ASCAT indicated light and gentle winds prevail across the basin with brief gusty winds near tstorms east of the trough axis from 20N-26N between 92W-94W. A trough near 94W will move west of the of area tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail along and near this trough. Otherwise, high pressure will remain elsewhere across the area maintaining gentle to moderate winds across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... In the upper levels, easterly flow prevails with some subsidence across the eastern and central Caribbean as upper level ridge centered near 21N64W remains in control. At the surface, latest GOES 16 SAL imagery indicates the presence of SAL is still across much of the south Caribbean from the ABC Islands to the Yucatan Channel. ASCAT do show moderate to fresh easterly trades across the eastern and central Caribbean and a light E/SE flow in the NW Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the Bahamas across Cuba to 19N77W. Abundant moisture in the vicinity continues to enhance showers and tstorms over Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in Hispaniola associated to the tropical wave along 68W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 09N-12N between 74W-84W. This convection is mostly due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras tonight into early Fri before diminishing. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue over the south- central Caribbean through Tue night, expanding in coverage later this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An trough of low pressure over the northwest Bahamas is located 28N78W and beyond Central Cuba to 19N77W. Scattered moderate convection is 22N-29N between 69W-79W. Scattered moderate convection with this trough has become a little better organized since yesterday. Slow development is possible during the next several days while it moves northwestward towards the FL peninsula, then turns northeast off the southeast coast of the United States. Locally heavy rains are possible over portion of S FL peninsula during the next day or two. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N67W. Upper level diffluence is producing scattered moderate convection from 27N-32N between 58W-63W. Further east, a 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 32N53W and remains in control across the basin. A surface trough near 78W will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 70W at least through Sat. The surface trough will move westward, reaching Florida on Fri. $$ MMTorres