000 AXNT20 KNHC 221732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 131 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Chantal centered near 38.8N 43.8W at 22/1500 UTC or 630 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the center from 38N-40N between 40W-43W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17/18W from 04N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 16W-23W. A 1012 mb low is embedded on the monsoon trough near 9.5N36W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-11N between 37W-40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 19N46W to 10N45W to 06N43W, moving W at 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show a moisture maximum associated with the wave. Isolated light showers are along and within 180 nm E of the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67/68W from 08N-20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers cover the NE Caribbean north of 15N between 60W-70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 14N17W to a 1012 mb low near 09N36W to 10N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 07N-10N between 11W-16W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is centered over S Georgia near 32N84W. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 25N94W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-27N between 90W-96W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the SW Gulf near 23N94W. An upper level high is centered over the N Yucatan Peninsula near 20N88W. Upper level diffluence is over the N Gulf. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 27N-31N between 85W-97W. The SW Gulf surface trough will move west of the of area by late tonight. Fresh to strong southeast winds will follow in behind the trough. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will remain elsewhere across the area maintaining gentle to moderate winds across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. Isolated moderate convection is over Jamaica. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 09N-12N between 79W-84W. This convection is mostly due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level high centered over the Atlantic near 22N65W is producing easterly flow over the central and eastern Caribbean with strong subsidence. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras tonight into early Fri, then diminish to mainly moderate to fresh speeds through the rest of the period. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue over the south- central Caribbean through Mon night while expanding in coverage. These winds will reach the Hispaniola adjacent waters Sat night through Mon due to the tightening of the gradient in the wake of the next tropical wave to pass across the region. A tropical wave, with axis near 69W will move across Hispaniola tonight and early Fri, and across the western Caribbean Fri through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the Bahamas from 27N78W to beyond central Cuba near 22N79W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-27N between 71W-79W. A 1025 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N52W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N67W. Upper level diffluence is producing scattered moderate convection from 28N-33N between 58W-65W. Over the W Atlantic, favorable upper-level conditions in combination with a middle level trough S of 28N near 78W will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 70W at least through Sat. A surface trough associated with these features aloft, will move across the northern and central Bahamas today and across Florida on Fri. The pressure gradient between the surface trough and high pressure across the remainder forecast waters will lead to the continuation of moderate to locally fresh winds across the region the entire period. $$ Formosa