000 AXNT20 KNHC 221123 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 620 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Chantal is centered near 39.1N 45.7W at 22/0900 UTC or 560 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the center from 38N-40N between 42W- 45W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20/21W S of 19N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is seen from 10N-16N between 16W-23W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 19N45W to 12N44W to 05N40W, moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues toTropical Depression Chantal centered near 39.1N 45.7W at 22/0900 UTC or 560 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. show a moisture maximum associated with the wave. Isolated light showers are along and within 180 nm E of the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 65/66W from 08N-21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered light to moderate showers cover the NE Caribbean north of 15N between the Virgin Islands and the Mona Passage. A tropical wave in the SW Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche is located along 95/96W S of 23N and stretches into the eastern Pacific. This wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with an upper level low and is producing scattered moderate convection from 22N-26N between 88W-95W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 18N16W to a 1012 mb low near 10N34W to 10N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen near and west of the 1012 mb surface low from 08N-12N between 34W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low and a tropical wave are over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 22N- 26N between 88W-95W. Elsewhere S of 27N between 88W-95W, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are also seen near the Lower Florida Keys. The latest ASCAT pass shows gentle winds across much of the Gulf. However, fresh SE winds are in the eastern Bay of Campeche east of the tropical wave. A tropical wave with axis near Veracruz adjacent waters will move W of the Gulf late today as the upper level low moves N over the western Gulf. Expect enhanced shower and thunderstorm coverage over the western Gulf today and tonight. Expect enhanced showers and tstorms over the N Gulf on Friday as the upper trough moves N. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected over the SW and central basin today following the wave passage. Surface high pressure will persist elsewhere, maintaining gentle to moderate winds across the region.Tropical Depression Chantal centered near 39.1N 45.7W at 22/0900 UTC or 560 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen from western Haiti to Jamaica to the Cayman Islands due to upper-level diffluence. A surface trough over the Bahamas is also enhancing the moisture in this region. An area of scattered moderate to strong convection is seen over southern Belize and eastern Guatemala. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of 12N and west of 80W. Relatively dry low to mid level air covers the eastern Caribbean and portions of the central Caribbean. However, a tropical wave in the E Caribbean is spreading scattered light to moderate showers over the NE Caribbean. Latest ASCAT shows moderate trades covering much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds in the south-central basin off Colombia and NW Venezuela. Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras tonight and will persist over the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Strong winds in the central Caribbean will extend to Hispaniola adjacent waters Sat night through Mon due to the passage of a tropical wave across the region. A tropical wave will move across Puerto Rico today, Hispaniola by tonight, and the western Caribbean Fri and Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extending from the surface to the mid-levels is currently over the Bahamas. A separate mid to upper level low is near 31N68W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the much of the Bahamas as well as the area within 120 nm either side of a line from 26N73W to 29N66W to 32N64W. A 1025 mb high centered near 32N52W is leading to surface ridging across much of the remainder of the basin. Upper level divergence and a middle level trough S of 28N will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 70W at least through Sat. An associated surface trough will move across the northern and central Bahamas today and near South Florida on Fri. The surface trough will then move N along the east coast of Florida this weekend. The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. The pressure gradient between the surface trough and high pressure across the remainder of the forecast waters will lead to the continuation of moderate to locally fresh winds across the region during the entire period. $$ Hagen