000 AXNT20 KNHC 220541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19/20W S of 18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is seen from 10N-16N between 15W-22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N44W to 11N42W to 06N36W, moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show a moisture maximum associated with the wave. Scattered showers are along and within 180 nm E of the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 63W from 08N-21N, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated to scattered light to moderate showers cover the NE Caribbean north of 15N between the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. A tropical wave in the SW Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche is located along 94W S of 23N and stretches into the eastern Pacific. This wave is moving W around 10 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with an upper level low and is producing scattered moderate convection from 17N-25N between 88.5W-94W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 17N16W to 13N25W to 10N33W to 10N39W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-12N between 34W-37.5W. This area of convection is associated with a weak low to mid level low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low and a tropical wave are over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 25N between 88.5W-94W. Elsewhere S of 27N between 88W-95W, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen near the W coast of the Florida Peninsula and just N of the western tip of Cuba. The latest ASCAT pass shows gentle winds across much of the Gulf. However, fresh SE winds are in the eastern Bay of Campeche east of the tropical wave. The tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche will move W of the Gulf by Fri, as the upper level trough moves N over the western Gulf. Expect enhanced shower and thunderstorm coverage over the western Gulf today and tonight. Expect enhanced showers and tstorms over the N Gulf on Friday as the upper trough moves N. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected today in the SW Gulf following the wave passage. Elsewhere, a surface high pressure ridge will persist over the NE Gulf through this weekend, maintaining generally tranquil marine conditions across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate showers and tstorms seen from eastern Cuba to Hispaniola are due to upper-level diffluence. The strongest convection is seen over southwestern Haiti and adjacent waters. A surface trough over the Bahamas is also enhancing the moisture in this region. Another surface trough extending over the E Gulf of Mexico southward to western Cuba is producing scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the NW Caribbean north of 17.5N. Elsewhere, isolated showers and tstorms are over the far SW Caribbean in association with the East Pacific monsoon trough. Relatively dry low to mid level air covers the eastern Caribbean and portions of the central Caribbean. However, a tropical wave in the E Caribbean is spreading isolated to scattered light showers over the NE Caribbean. Latest ASCAT shows moderate trades covering much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds in the south-central basin off Colombia and NW Venezuela. Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras through early this morning and again tonight. Fresh to strong trades will persist over the south-central Caribbean through this weekend. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean near 63W will cross the eastern Caribbean to the central Caribbean by Fri, then cross the western Caribbean Sat and Sun. Another tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extending from the surface to the mid-levels is currently over the Bahamas. A separate mid to upper level low is near 31N69W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen over the much of the Bahamas, the Old Bahama Channel, Haiti, and the area within 90 nm either side of a line from 25N72W to 32N65W. A 1025 mb high centered near 32N49W is leading to surface ridging across much of the remainder of the basin. The surface trough that extends from 23N79W to 28N77W will generate moderate to fresh SE winds and produce showers and tstorms over the waters W of 75W during the next several days as it slowly moves northward along the E coast of Florida. The system has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. A surface high pressure ridge residing across the far northern waters will generally support gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the open waters E of the Bahamas through the end of this week. Fresh to locally strong trades are expected at night between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. $$ Hagen