000 AXNT20 KNHC 212345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near the West coast of Africa is along 17W S of 19N, moving W at around 15 kt. Abundant moisture is noted in the latest TPW with a broad area of convection associated along the vicinity of the wave. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N-17N between 13W-23W. Areas from Liberia northward into southern Mauritania are also experiencing numerous moderate to strong convection. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 39W S of 16N, moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show the wave accompanied by a large area of high moisture content. Scattered moderate showers are seen east of the wave from 09N-13N between 31W-40W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 62W S of 22N, moving W around 15-20 kt. Showers are seen within 100 nm of the wave moving across the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche is located along 94W S of 22N and stretches into the eastern Pacific. This wave is moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-23N between 93W-96W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 17N16W to 13N25W to 08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 09N52W to 10N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropic waves section, showers are seen within 75 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen in the central and western Gulf in the vicinity of the tropical wave, from 23N-30N between 85W-96W. Additionally, the Yucatan trough is enhancing a strong line of thunderstorms currently moving into the western Bay of Campeche, from 19N-22N between 88W-91W. Latest scatterometer depicts light to gentle easterly winds with moderate winds north of the Yucatan. A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche will move W of the Gulf by Friday, with fresh to strong SE winds expected tonight and Thursday following wave passage. Elsewhere, a surface high pressure ridge will persist over the NE Gulf through this weekend, maintaining generally tranquil marine conditions across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level troughing is currently over the Caribbean basin, and is leading to numerous moderate to strong convection across the Greater Antilles. Most of the convection is occurring over land; however, some storms are moving into adjacent waters off Cuba, Haiti, Puerto Rico and across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. This activity is observed from 18N-22N between 67W-84W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing some convection in the SW basin, mostly off of Colombia and Panama, S of 11N between 75W-83W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades in the western basin. Light to gentle trades are seen in the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Thursday night. Fresh to strong trades will persist over the south- central Caribbean through this weekend. A tropical wave will move E from the Lesser Antilles across the eastern Caribbean to the central Caribbean Friday, then cross the western Caribbean Saturday and Sunday. Another tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Enhanced upper-level divergence in between an upper trough and an upper ridge as well as abundant low-mid level moisture are over the SE and central Bahamas. A surface trough is seen along the Bahamas from 23N77W to 29N73W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen across the Bahamas and moving off of Cuba from 21N-26N between 71W-80W. Another surface trough is seen near 26N68W to 30N65W, reflected from an upper level low near 32N69W, with showers and isolated thunderstorms within 80 nm of the trough from 26N- 32N. The remainder of the Atlantic is being influenced by a high pressure ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high near 31N51W. A surface trough over the central Bahamas will generate moderate to fresh SE winds and produce showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 75W. Expect this during the next several days as it slowly moves NW along the E coast of Florida. A surface high pressure ridge residing across the far northern waters will generally support gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the open waters E of the Bahamas through the end of this week. Fresh to locally strong trades are expected at night between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. $$ AKR