000 AXNT20 KNHC 211753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near the West coast of Africa is along 15W S of 18N, moving W at around 15 kt. Wave model guidance depicts the formation of this wave in the area. Abundant moisture is noted in the latest TPW with a broad area of convection associated along the vicinity of the wave. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N-10N between 12W-21W including inland areas of Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Senegal. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 35W S of 18N, moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show the wave accompanied by a large area of high moisture content. Scattered moderate showers are seen from 03N-12N between 31-38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 21N58W to 11N61W is moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are seen within 150 nm east of the tropical wave from 12N-21N. A tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico is located along 92W from 23N southward across the Bay of Campeche into the Eastern Pacific 05N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-24N between 89W-95W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 08N35W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical wave, scattered showers are seen along the monsoon trough 180 nm north and 200 nm to the south. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the north and central Gulf of Mexico. In the Bay of Campeche, tropical wave is present from 23N92W. Aside from the convection near the tropical wave, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are present across the eastern Gulf coast from 21N-27N between 81W-88W. A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche will cross the SW Gulf today and tonight, with fresh to strong SE winds expected tonight into early Thu following wave passage. Elsewhere, a surface high pressure will persist over the NE Gulf through the weekend, maintaining generally tranquil marine conditions across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant moisture in the NW Caribbean along with upper level diffluence associated to an upper trough is enhancing broad area of disturbed showers and isolated tstorms from 18N-22N between 78W-86W in the Yucatan Channel. Recent GOES 16 SAL imagery indicates the presence of Saharan dust in the central Caribbean Sea. In the SW, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from NW coast of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica mainly associated to the Pacific monsoon trough. Further east, scattered showers are associated with the tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles. ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean and light winds across the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NW Caribbean through this evening in the wake of a tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong trades will persist over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. A tropical wave will pass over the Lesser Antilles later today, move across the eastern Caribbean tonight through Thu night, then cross the western Caribbean Fri through Sat. Another tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Enhanced upper-level divergence in between an upper trough and an upper ridge as well as abundant low-mid level moisture are over the SE and central Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is to the east of the Bahamas from 22N-26N between 71W-76W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere from 24N-31N between 61W-70W associated to a surface trough near 30N64W to 25N66W. The remainder of the Atlantic is being influenced by a high pressure ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high near 31N49W and a 1022 mb high centered near 32N32W. A middle-level low over the SW forecast waters will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas through Sat. Surface high pressure will prevail elsewhere along with gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades are expected at night between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. In the far E Atlantic, strong to near gale force N to NE winds will persist today offshore of Morocco and Western Sahara as well as near the Canary Islands. $$ MMTorres