000 AXNT20 KNHC 211020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 620 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 34W S of 19N, moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show the wave accompanied by a large area of high moisture content. Scattered moderate showers are seen from 05N-07N between 29-33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 23N57W to 12N59W and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated light showers are seen within 90 nm of the wave axis from 15N-21N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Senegal near 13N17W to 10N31W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to 09N53W to 07N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen over west Africa and just offshore from 10N-15N between 13W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 10W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... The northern end of a tropical wave is over the eastern Bay of Campeche from 24N90W to 18N91W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is over the Yucatan Channel from 20N-23.5N between 84W-88W. Scattered showers and tstorms are off the W coast of the Florida peninsula. The tropical wave over the eastern Bay of Campeche will persist as a mid-level trough, bringing enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity to much of the central and southwest Gulf today and Thursday. Fresh to locally strong winds are forecast in the SW Gulf tonight and Thursday. The mid-level trough will migrate northward late in the week, enhancing convection for the northwestern and north-central Gulf Thursday night into Friday. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging will persist, leading to mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moisture from a tropical wave along with upper-level diffluence are leading to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection over the Yucatan Channel from 19N-23N between 84W-88W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are farther S in the Gulf of Honduras, and farther E between the Windward Passage and the E coast of Jamaica. The eastern half of the Caribbean is drier, although scattered light showers are seen in some areas in advance of the tropical wave, which is expected to move through the Lesser Antilles later today and tonight. In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong convection is over N Colombia, Costa Rica and over water within 30 miles of Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass from Tuesday evening shows strong trades in the central Caribbean between Jamaica and NE Colombia. The tropical wave over the W Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean through this evening. Strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras at night tonight and Thu. Fresh to strong trades will persist over the south-central Caribbean through the next five days. The next tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Wed night, reach the central basin on Thu night and enter the western Caribbean Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Enhanced upper-level divergence in between an upper trough and an upper ridge as well as abundant low-mid level moisture are over the SE and central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is to the east of the Bahamas from 23N-28N between 71W-76W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere from 20N-29N between 68W-80W. An upper-level low near 32N69W is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 26N-32N between 64W-71W. The remainder of the Atlantic is being influenced by an E-W high pressure ridge along 31N, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 32N50W. A middle-level low over the SW forecast waters will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas through Sat. Surface high pressure will prevail elsewhere along with gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades are expected at night between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. In the far E Atlantic, strong to near gale force N to NE winds will persist today offshore of Morocco and Western Sahara as well as near the Canary Islands. $$ Hagen