862 AXNT20 KNHC 210513 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 113 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 32W S of 19N, moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show the wave being accompanied by a large area of high moisture content. Scattered showers are seen from 04N-08N between 30W-39W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 23N55W to 13N58W and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered light showers are seen within 90 nm of the wave axis from 15N-21N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Senegal near 13N17W to 10N31W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to 09N53W to 07N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical wave, scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 04N-08N between 21W-29W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-08N between 11W-16W. GULF OF MEXICO... The northern end of a strong tropical wave is moving off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Currently, scattered moderate convection is in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from Cozumel to Cancun. Additional scattered showers and tstorms are noted off the west coast of Florida. The tropical wave moving into the Bay of Campeche will persist as a mid-level trough, brining enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity to much of the central and southwest Gulf today and Thursday. Fresh to locally strong winds are forecast in the SW Gulf tonight and Thursday. The mid-level trough will migrate northward late in the week, enhancing convection for the northwestern and north-central Gulf Thursday night into Friday. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging will persist, leading to mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Enhanced upper-level divergence and abundant low-mid level moisture is over the SE and Central Bahamas, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. As a result, scattered moderate convection is seen within and near the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Channel due to enhanced moisture in the wake of the tropical wave that is now along 90W. Some of the shower activity extends southward into the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate convection is seen in the Gulf of Venezuela and over northern Colombia, associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough. The eastern Caribbean is mostly dry. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong trades in the central Caribbean between Jamaica and NE Colombia. A tropical wave over the western Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala will support showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean W of 84W through early this morning. Strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Thu night. Winds will remain fresh to locally strong over the S central Caribbean through the forecast period as the pressure gradient persists between high pressure N of the region and low pressure over Colombia. The next tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight, then continue W and reach the western Caribbean by the end of this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Enhanced upper-level divergence in between an upper trough and an upper ridge as well as abundant low-mid level moisture are over the SE and Central Bahamas, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. As a result, scattered moderate convection is seen affecting portions of the SE and Central Bahamas, as well as the adjacent waters from 20N-26N between 71W-75W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere from 20N-28N between 70W-78W as well as in the Florida Straits and across the Florida Keys. The remainder of the Atlantic is being influenced by an E-W high pressure ridge along 30N, anchored by 1024 mb highs near 32N51W and 32N35W. An upper-level trough extending SW from 31N70W to 24N81W will support showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas this morning. A surface ridge extending W from the Bermuda high will dominate the northern waters through Saturday, with gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevailing across much of the region. Fresh to locally strong trades are expected at night between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. In the far E Atlantic, strong to near gale force N to NE winds will persist today offshore of Morocco and Western Sahara as well as near the Canary Islands. $$ Hagen