658 AXNT20 KNHC 200516 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 116 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... New satellite data received subsequent to the completion of the 20/0000 UTC surface analysis indicates that the far eastern Atlantic tropical wave that was being analyzed along 16/17W near the coast of Africa is actually little farther west. The wave axis is along 21W from 06N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. TPW imagery shows that the wave is accompanied by a large sure of high moisture content. Scattered moderate convection is from 07.5N-13N between 19W-27W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 03N-20N, moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are from 05N-09N between 36W-43W. SAL is limiting showers over the remainder of the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W from 05N-21N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 150 nm of the wave axis from 13N-22W with some additional showers and tstorms between Jamaica and E Cuba and over Haiti. Expect scattered to widespread showers and tstorms to continue over the NW Caribbean through Tue. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 10N26W to 08N30W to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 27W- 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface troughing and upper-level troughing over the SE U.S. are leading to cloudiness along with scattered showers and isolated tstorms across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The precipitation is not intense at this time for most areas. In the SE Gulf, convection is starting to increase now as a surface trough and tropical wave approach from the east. Scattered moderate convection is seen to the west of South Florida extending to 85W. Similar convection is seen in the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Straits. A weak surface trough is inducing scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche south of 20N between 92W-95W. Expect showers and tstorms to increase across the southern Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface trough moves from east to west across the area. The low pressure trough will be over the SW Gulf on Wed, then track NW toward the Texas coast through Fri. A weak high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf will persist through the week. A low pressure trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula each day will move W and produce fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the adjacent offshore waters each evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection over the NW Caribbean is associated with a tropical wave. See section above for details. Scattered strong convection is seen over northern Colombia. Drier air is over the E Caribbean E of 72W with little to no significant showers. The latest ASCAT pass from Monday evening shows strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, with fresh trades over the remainder of the central Caribbean. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean near 80W will exit the western Caribbean by tonight. Bermuda high pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean through early Wed. Then, winds will diminish to fresh speeds through the rest of the week as the high shifts eastward. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras early this morning and again tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is noted over the western Atlantic from 29N77W to 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Old Bahama Channel from 22N-25N between 76W-81W. Scattered showers and tstorms cover the area elsewhere from 19N-31N between 72W-84W. Additional scattered showers and tstorms are north of Hispaniola. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 32N54W. In the far eastern Atlantic, strong to near gale force NE winds are expected to persist offshore Morocco and near the Canary Islands for the next couple of days. The trough extending from just N of Cuba near 23N80W to 29N77W will continue tracking W and move inland over central and southern Florida this morning. Scattered showers and tstorms will accompany this trough. A high pressure ridge across the northern waters will generally support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 22N and moderate to occasionally fresh E winds south of 22N through this week. Strong E winds will pulse early this morning between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. $$ Hagen