000 AXNT20 KNHC 200001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the coast of W Africa along 16W from 06N- 20N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave model diagnostics indicates this wave is at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 12W-17W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 03N-19N, moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the wave axis S of 10N. SAL is limiting showers over the remainder of the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 05N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Cuba, N Colombia, and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon extends from Senegal near 14N16W to 08N30W to 07N50W. The ITCZ extends from 07N50W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 20W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1013 mb low is centered over S Georgia near 32N84W a surface trough extends W from the center to N Louisiana near 32N91W. Scattered moderate convection is over the N Gulf N of 26N and E of 95W. Similar convection is over S Florida and W Cuba. A surface trough is over the E Bau of Campeche from 23N90W to 17N92W. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N-21N between 89W-92W. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is enhancing convection over the NE Gulf of Mexico. A weak high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf will persist through the week. A low pressure trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula each day will move W and produce fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the adjacent offshore waters each evening. A low pressure trough will develop over the SW Gulf on Wed, then track NW toward the Texas coast through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the W Caribbean, and Central America mostly due to an upper level low centered over W Honduras near 15N87W. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is also enhancing convection over Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean near 77W will cross the western Caribbean Tue. High pressure north of the area near Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean through early Wed. Winds will then diminish to fresh speeds through the rest of the week as high pressure shifts eastward. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough is noted over the western Atlantic from 29N74W to 24N79W. Scattered moderate convection over the Bahamas from 23N-27N between 76W-80W. A 1023 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 32N61W. GOES 16 RGB Geocolor imagery shows the Saharan dust across most of the basin from 12N-31N E of 40W. Thw W Atlantic surface trough will continue tracking westward across the western Bahamas through tonight, then move inland over central and southern Florida Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this trough. A high pressure ridge across the northern waters will generally support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 22N and moderate to occasionally fresh E winds south of 22N through this week. Strong E winds will pulse tonight between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. $$ Formosa