000 AXNT20 KNHC 191805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near the coast of W Africa is along 15W from 20N southward. The wave model diagnostics indicate the location of this wave at 700 mb. Scattered showers are inland near Guinea and Senegal but no significant convection observed along the wave axis. GOES 16 RGB Geocolor imagery shows abundant Saharan dust near the wave which is limiting convection north of 12N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 19N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 09N near the monsoon trough between 37W-40W. North of 09N, SAL is present limiting the convection along the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, from 20N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 knots. Dry air is in limiting convection along the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is seen 90 to 100 nm west of the wave, W of 79W in the NW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Senegal near 12N16W to 09N29W to 07N49W. Aside to the convection mentioned associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 180 to 200 nm south of the monsoon trough between 20W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad ridge is centered in Mexico near 27N106W extends across the Gulf of Mexico with a weak trough deepening across the southeast Plains. At the surface, ASCAT indicates a easterly light to moderate flow across the eastern Gulf. TPW shows plenty of moisture concentrated along the northern Gulf coast. This is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms from Louisiana to the FL Panhandle and the Big bend, from 27N-30N east of 90W to the Florida coast. Isolated showers are developing in the FL peninsula. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin with no significant convection present. A weak high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf will persist through the week. A low pressure trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula each day will move westward and produce fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the adjacent offshore waters each evening. A low pressure trough will develop over the SW Gulf on Wed and track northwestward toward the Texas coast through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Upper level low centered near Honduras and surface trough along the Yucatan Peninsula is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection across the NW Caribbean Sea west of 78W to the Gulf of Honduras and south of Cuba. Recent ASCAT pass shows east moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras south of 18N. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical wave, scattered moderate strong convection is along the coast of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica near the Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are present across the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean near 76W will move westward across the western Caribbean through Tue. Bermuda high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean through early Wed. Then, winds will diminish to fresh speeds through the rest of the week as high pressure shifts eastward. Elsewhere, fresh to strong easterly winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A surface trough is noted over the western Atlantic from 28N72W to 22N77W. This is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 67W, across the Bahama to northern Cuba, and the Straits of FL. In the east and central Atlantic a 1023 mb high pressure remains in control with no significant convection noted across much of the basin. GOES 16 RGB Geocolor imagery shows the Saharan dust across most of the basin north of 09N to 31N and east of 40W. A trough extending from near 29N72W to the central Bahamas will continue tracking westward across the rest of the Bahamas through this evening, then move inland over central and southern Florida on Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this trough. A high pressure ridge across the northern waters will support generally gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 22N and moderate to occasionally fresh E winds south of 22N through this week. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse tonight between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. $$ MMTorres