000 AXNT20 KNHC 191103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N between 30W and 40W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong monsoon trough-related rainshowers are 06N to 08N between 30W and 40W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. The wave is moving across the waters that are between Haiti and Cuba and Jamaica. Warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating/weakening precipitation are in the waters that are between Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica. Numerous strong rainshowers were in the same waters at 19/0600 UTC. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the southeastern two-thirds of the Dominican Republic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Senegal and The Gambia near 12N17W, to 12N28W, 08N43W, and 08N52W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of the line that runs from 10N20W to 08N30W 07N36W 07N41W and 07N47W. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are possible to the south of 22N17W 17N24W 12N37W 12N60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level inverted trough extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the central sections of the Gulf. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 21N northward from 96W eastward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers have developed along the coast of Mexico from 18N to 20N between 95W and 97W. A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the east coast of Florida near 28N, to the central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge, that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, will change little through the week. The surface pressure gradient, between weak low pressure in southern Alabama and the ridge, will allow for fresh southwest winds in the NE Gulf of Mexico to continue through early this morning, before diminishing to moderate speeds. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse in the waters adjacent to the western Yucatan Peninsula through early this morning and again tonight. The northern part of a tropical wave will move from the western Caribbean Sea into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. It will weaken to a trough and track northwestward across the western Gulf of Mexico, from Wednesday night through Thursday night, before reaching the Texas coast on Friday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with this feature. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough from 250 mb to 700 mb passes across Cuba to Honduras and Nicaragua. A surface trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, along 85W/86W from Honduras northward. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, from 10N80W to 12N82W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the open waters from 10N to 20N between Jamaica and 86W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W and 80W in Panama, and then continuing northwestward from Panama beyond NW Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers, in clusters, from 06N to 10N between 76W and 83W. The combination of a 74W/75W tropical wave, and high pressure to the north of the area, will support a pressure gradient that will allow for fresh to strong east winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through early Wednesday. Fresh to strong east winds are expected again in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds through the remainder of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 74W/75W from 23N in the Bahamas to 29N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 90 nm to the ENE of the trough, and within 300 nm to the southwest of the trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 66W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from the islands of the NE Caribbean Sea to 25N between 60W and 66W, in an area of broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface ridge is along 33N31W, to a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 32N54W, to 32N70W, beyond 28N along the Florida east coast. The current Atlantic Ocean 74W/75W surface trough will track westward, across the rest of the Bahamas through this evening, and move inland into central and southern Florida on Tuesday. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. The pressure gradient S of the ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean generally will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of 22N, and moderate to fresh E winds S of 22N through the end of the week. Fresh to strong east winds will pulse at night, between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola, tonight and again on Tuesday night. $$ MT