000 AXNT20 KNHC 182351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 751 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 04N-19N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 28W-40W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 04N-20N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Upper air soundings from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, showed wave passage today. Scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over N Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 16N17W to the Cape Verde Islands near 15N24W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from that point to Suriname near 06N55W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 09N-19N between 10W-21W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 40W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is E of Trinidad from 09N-12N between 56W-61W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb low is over the Florida panhandle near 31N85W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 27N between 80W-92W to include the north Gulf States. Similar convection is over S Florida. Isolated moderate convection is over W Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin except the Bay of Campeche, where fresh winds are noted. The Florida Panhandle low will support fresh to strong S to SW winds over the NE Gulf tonight. Strong winds will pulse over the waters adjacent to the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters tonight and Mon night. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move from the western Caribbean Sea over the Bay of Campeche Tue night and Wed accompanied by abundant tropical moisture. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will extend W from the Atlantic to the northern Gulf coast through the end of this week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely scattered moderate convection is over Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over S Guatemala,El Salvador, W Honduras, E Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered NE of Honduras near 17N83W. Upper level diffluence is over the SW Caribbean enhancing convection. The tropical wave over the central Caribbean along 72W will combine with high pressure N of the area to support fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean tonight through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Mon night, then moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 27N71W to 22N73W. A 1024 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 33N60W. A 1021 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N27W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the W Atlantic with axis from 32N57W to to beyond central Cuba near 22N78W. Isolated moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 21N-31N between 60W-78W to include the Bahamas. The W Atlantic surface trough will track W and move inland over Florida Mon night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this trough. The pressure gradient S of the high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will generally support gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of 22N and moderate to fresh E winds S of 22N through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola through Tue night. $$ Formosa