000 AXNT20 KNHC 181734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 34W, is moving west at about 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 10N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 67W, is moving west at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery depicts a moisture maximum behind the wave's axis covering the far eastern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern portion of the wave north of 13N between 63W-67W. A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan peninsula, with axis from 21N90W to 04N91W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The convection related to this feature prevails across the EPAC waters at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 24N15W to 13N24W to 07N39W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 06N53W. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm north of the ITCZ mainly west of 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... The northern extend of a tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan peninsula. Refer to the section above for details. A 1013 mb low has developed over the Florida panhandle, centered near 30N86W. A surface trough extends from the low to 29N87W. Scattered showers prevail across the northeast Gulf with these features, mainly north of 28N and east of 90W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin except the Bay of Campeche, where fresh winds are noted. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the NE Gulf of Mexico are associated with the low pressure over the Florida Panhandle will dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters through Mon. Weak high pressure will prevail across the central Gulf through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. An upper level trough passes from the central Bahamas, across the SE half of Cuba, to eastern Honduras. Upper level diffluence is over Central America from Honduras to Costa Rica enhancing convection. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades prevailing across the basin. The passage of the tropical wave along with high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean tonight through Tue night. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras today, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N80W to 26N79W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. To the east, a surface trough extends from 28N69W to 21N72W with scattered showers within 75 nm on either sides of the trough. Surface ridging prevails over the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 32N55W and a 1023 mb high near 34N25W. The surface trough over the west Atlantic will track westward across the forecast waters through Mon before moving inland over Florida Mon night into Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this trough. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the trough will allow for generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds to the north of about 22N and for moderate to fresh east winds S of 22N through most of the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola through mid-week. $$ ERA