000 AXNT20 KNHC 180604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 20N southward, moving W 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N between 30W and 40W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of the line that runs from 20N55W to 15N60W and 11N64W, near the coast of Venezuela. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 22N southward, moving W 15 knots. The GFS model shows that a 250 mb trough passes from the central Bahamas, across the SE half of Cuba, to eastern Honduras. The satellite imagery easily confirms the trough. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas of NE Nicaragua, in eastern El Salvador, and in southern sections of Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 15N17W to 12N27W 06N36W and 06N40W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to the NE coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are 04N to 10N between 30W and 60W. Rainshowers are possible from 15N southward from 40W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front is inland, from central Georgia, to the border of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and into the southern part of Mississippi. A middle level to upper level trough is in the same area, as the front. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 27N to 29N between 84W and 87W. Disorganized cloudiness and rainshowers in the NE Gulf of Mexico are associated with the current inland warm front in the SE U.S.A. The wind speeds and the sea heights may be higher in and near the rainshowers and storms. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected in the NE Gulf of Mexico through Sunday evening. Strong winds will pulse in the waters that are just to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Monday night. The northern part of a tropical wave will move from the western Caribbean Sea to the Bay of Campeche on Wedneday. The tropical wave will be accompanied by ample deep moisture. High pressure will build W across the area through Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes from the central Bahamas, across the SE half of Cuba, to eastern Honduras. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 500 nm to the NW of the line that runs from the Anegada Passage to NE coastal Colombia. Other rainshowers are possible in the rest of the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage tonight. A tropical wave, currently near 87W, will move W of the Caribbean Sea tonight. The wave will combine with high pressure N of the area in order to support fresh to strong winds in the SW Caribbean Sea tonight, and in the NW Caribbean Sea through Sunday. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the south central Caribbean Sea on Sunday evening, as the next tropical wave, that currently is just to the west of the Lesser Antilles, arrives. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 29N65W 25N67W 20N68W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 20N to 30N between 54W and 75W. The current surface ridge will remain to the north of 30N through the forecast period. A trough will track W, from 68W, across the eastern and central forecast waters, on Sunday and Sunday night. The trough will move across the western Bahamas on Monday, before moving inland into Florida on Tuesday. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds generally will prevail N of 22N, with moderate to fresh E winds expected S of 22N, through most of the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola, through Wednesday. $$ MT